A small miscalculation !

It is hard to read the real intentions of North Korea.  Their past history includes constant threats against both South Korea and the American military, and in some instances they have actually shelled South Korean territory and torpedoed a naval vessel.    This time around they have torn up the armistice that ended the Korean war in 1953, closed down the "Hot Line " between the two countries - and threatened a nuclear war with the United States.

It seems that North Korea's leader, Kim Jong-Un is a young man battling to hold his supremacy amongst his country's military brass.   He seems to have chosen militancy and nationalism as a weapon to keep the support of the masses, but he rules a country with a dismal history of famine, known to the rest of the world as " the Hermit kingdom ".

This latest bout of irrationality brings with it danger.  He appears to have whipped up his citizens to a frenzy and the tone of threats has been steadily rising.   This is a country with one of the biggest armed forces in the world and it has acquired rudimentary nuclear weapons.   It probably lacks the expertise to fit nukes onto it's delivery systems, but North Korea could deliver a nuclear strike across it's border with the south.  It's threats must certainly be taken seriously.

The biggest threat seems to be - from " war by accident " !    When tension is on a knife edge a small miscalculation is all it takes to set big events in motion.    In the past, North Korea has had the support of China - and to a lesser extent Russia - as a buffer.   That support has evaporated.   Both countries voted in favour of sanctions when North Korea defied the United Nations and conducted a third nuclear test.

Kim Jong-Un may find himself a victim of his own strategy.    If the actions of an individual commander or a misinterpreted order creates a fire fight with either the south or the American military he will be caught on the horns of a dilemma.  If he backs off - he will be considered " weak " by his generals - and overthrown.   If he takes his country to a nuclear war with a far superior military force, North Korea will be " toast ".

South Korea has emerged as a new Asian powerhouse of innovative industry governed by a democratic regime.   It's stability is at risk from this threat from the north.   What happens next depends entirely on how those commanding the North Korean military read the situation.   North Korea is now naked and alone - without friends - and seems likely to have it's bluff called.

These are indeed dangerous times for a part of the world working towards a prosperous future !