Monday, 17 December 2012

This troubled world.

Each nights television news relates scenes of carnage in the streets of cities all over the world.  In Egypt, Cairo is in turmoil as Egyptians fight over attempts by Islamists to force Sharia law through by way of a new constitution.   Damascus and the other cities of Syria are a living hell as rebels and government forces battle for control.  In Africa, hundreds of thousands of civilians are displaced by civil war and religious conflict  - and in the settled states of Europe there is hunger and unemployment as bankrupt governments try to stave off economic collapse.

In contrast, Japan was seen as a model of stability.  It delivered a post war miracle when it became the engine of the world in producing cheap cars and inventing electronic goods in the 1970's and 1980's - but from there it has been all down hill.   Somehow the impetus was lost and the Japanese economy has withered.

Japan is heading towards new elections and  there are signs that a new mood is emerging.   Japan's defeat in the second world war delivered an American occupation and a peaceful constitution.   It was allowed only a modest defence force and it's safety was guaranteed by the mighty United States war machine.  Freed from the cost of defence spending Japanese civil services soared.

Asia is now a fast changing and dangerous place.  A militant China is challenging the United States for both economic and military supremacy, South Korea is emerging as the new country to be reckoned with on the trade front - and North Korea is both a nuclear power and the country fast developing the means of asserting that power on a world basis.    The Japanese people have a reason to be alarmed.

Sabre rattling over disputed islets in the South China sea is causing Japan to assess it's military deficiencies in relation to China.   It faces a formidable foe just across the water and that potential foe has nuclear weapons and a massive war machine.   For some Japanese, now is the time to forget the events of 1941 to 1945 and reemerge as a military power.

This new awakening is showing itself in denials about the atrocities it's forces committed during the second world war.  Many voices claim that the " Rape of Nanking " did not happen.   Others deny that Japan forced the women of invaded nations to become " comfort women " providing sexual services to their troops.  Today's Japanese leaders continue to visit the Yasukuni shrine, the national monument to the war dead of Japan's wars from 1867 to 1951 - despite the fact that it honours men that the west executed as war criminals.

If Japan shakes off it's mood of pacification and starts to rearm we will be well on our way to as Asian troika.   Three countries with the population needed to achieve economic and military greatness are stressing their muscles - and it is inevitable that a fourth will soon join the party.

China is the present leader, but India and Japan have the potential to provide the foil to China, and a rapidly developing Indonesia will soon have the economic clout to be a fourth military giant.    In past centuries, the European states provided the cockpit for countless wars.    It seems that Europe is now destined to be a bit player - and the action has moved to our back yard !


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