The civil war in Syria edged up a notch higher when a mortar round hit the Turkish town of Akcakale and killed a Turkish woman and three of her children. This escalation provoked Turkish prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan to order his artillery to return fire, and he has raised the question of a NATO response under the terms of the mutual defence treaty binding NATO members.
There is no doubt that the mortar round came from Syrian territory, but precisely who fired it remains a mystery.
The death toll in this civil war has risen above thirty thousand and many of the casualties have been innocent women and children. President Assad has been relentless in using his mechanised army and modern air force to pound civilian targets. What he terms " terrorists " are rebels trying to remove a dynasty that has ruled Syria for generations and both sides are engaged in all out war.
The conflict is providing opportunity to a wide selection of people streaming into the country to try and influence the revolution to an end that suits their dogma. This includes Salafists, Mujaheddin and the vast array of splinter groups sheltering under the al Qaeda umbrella. Some of these would like to broaden the conflict to include the entire Middle East.
It is unlikely that Assad would willing;y provoke Turkey, so that mortar round could be a normal accident by members of his armed forces, or it could be a deliberate ploy by darker forces to promote their own agenda. NATO is showing no inclination to get involved and Erdogan seems to be satisfied that his gunners have restored Turkish honour. Provided there are no more " incidents " - the matter seems resolved.
The outcome of the " Arab Spring " is yet to be decided in individual countries. Tunisia seems to have settled on a secular, democratic form of government, but the situation is far from clear in neighbouring countries. The shape of emerging regimes is still a battle between those seeking democracy and fundamentalists who demand a theocratic, Sharia ruled state.
The " Middle East " could best be described as a " work in progress ". This revolution of ideas and power is simmering in a lot of countries not yet involved in direct action and the region will continue to be a powder keg for decades into the future.
What eventually emerges will determine if Islam becomes a religion of peace, or if a dogmatic theocracy tries to force it's adoption onto the rest of the world !
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