Kevin Rudd certainly scattered the pigeons in the Australian parliament when he called a 1 am press conference in the United States - and resigned as this country's Foreign Minister.
The " Mexican Standoff " between Rudd and Prime Minster Julia Gillard had been moving towards an inevitable conclusion. Gillard was quietly counting the number of her supporters in the 103 member caucus and Rudd was carefully avoiding a direct challenge. The " Mandarins " - those faceless men of the factions who actually run Labor politics - were plotting a different scenario. It was all a matter of secrecy - and timing !
Where Kevin Rudd is concerned - expect the unexpected !
Gillard has moved her Chess piece on the board by calling a caucus meeting for 10 am on Monday. Ministers loyal to her are running a fast and furious media campaign to denigrate Rudd, but the option of declaring a membership spill on Monday rests with the Prime Minister.
Gillard or Rudd would need 52 votes to win. So far, the numbers seem stacked in Gillard's favour but this weekend will be a torrid time of ceaseless phone calls, wheels and deals and a tug of war for votes - and Rudd has given no indication of what he intends to do if the numbers do not go his way.
Rudd is not an easy man to read. His boyish looks and easy manner captivated the voters back in 2007 and there is no doubt that he was the pivot point of the Labor win. The Kevin Rudd in the prime minister's suite was not what his colleagues expected. He was far from a leader who delegates power - and in fact he was a micro manager who surrounded himself with a close group of trusted colleagues - and mostly ignored the Labor caucus.
A lot will depend on what inner mind Rudd brings to that meeting on Monday. It has been claimed that Rudd has little loyalty to the Labor party and is motivated by self interest. If that is so - then there is a good chance that he may strike at the very heart of this government if he becomes aware that he does not have the numbers to win in a spill.
The ultimate would be for Rudd to use the full glare of publicity to resign from parliament - and to announce that her will run as an independent at the consequent by-election.
He would certainly be shunned by Labor' " true believers ", but he would also attract a lot of disaffected Labor votes, and he would certainly gain Liberal/National party voter support if they declined to name a candidate to run against him.
The Labor government balances on a razor knife edge. Rudd as an independent could tip the balance and a vindictive Rudd would hold enormous power - and perhaps it is power that is the moving force behind this man.
On Monday morning at 10 am - the number of viewers glued to their television screens or watching proceedings on their I-Pads or mobile phones will take the statistics right off the chart.
At this stage - it would take a brave soul to predict the outcome !
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