World events are slipping into a dangerous alignment that may bring strange new alliances in the coming New Year. Some scientists think that Iran is very near the first test of a nuclear bomb - and many countries in that part of the world fear this despotic theocracy joining the nuclear club.
There is a move to impose sanctions on Iran in the hope of heading off a nuclear test and if this proceeds it will probably include a boycott of Iranian oil, sharply cutting the money flow to the Islamic Republic and crippling it's military programmes.
Iran has stated that if any attempt is made to disrupt it's oil sales it will close the strategic Strait of Hormuz, thus locking in at least a third of the world's oil supply from the other oil producing countries of the Middle East. Iran claims that it's naval forces are quite capable of running such a blockade.
Legally, the Strait of Hormuz is not Iranian property. It is one of many international waterways - including the Malacca strait in East Asia and Gilbralta in the Mediterranean - which are classed as international waters open to all International shipping.
Iran is choosing a dangerous time to indulge in sabre rattling. America has just moved it's troops from Iraq and is about to start the withdrawal from Afghanistan. It is aware that a hostile Iran will try and cause trouble to prevent democratic governments emerging in these countries.
The oil producing countries of the Middle East will not welcome a nuclear armed Iran throwing it's weight around and trying to impose it's hard line of Islam on it's neighbours. Shi-ite Iran would be particularly unwelcome in those countries practising the Sunni branch of Islam - and there is now a convergence of interests between those countries and the United States.
The United States would certainly not want to be involved in another land war in that part of the world, but an interesting set of circumstances was recently played out in Libya. That was a war where the great powers were not involved by way of boots on the ground, but played a critical part by using air power to decimate enemy defences - leading to victory.
If Iran declares what is essentialy " economic war " by closing the Strait of Hormuz we could see a situation where American air power decimates their defences - and takes out their nuclear facilities - while the " boots on the ground " aspect is provided by the neighbouring Islamic countries.
Necessity makes strange bedfellows - and events in the Middle East are falling into such an alignment !
That old Arab adage - " The enemy of my enemy is my friend " comes to mind !
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