The much hyped " Malaysian deal " to stop the boats is fast heading to failure. To have any hope of success it needed to be announced and implemented fast - to deliver shock tactics to the people smugglers and prove that the Australian government was serious.
That simply didn't happen. It became a long drawn out affair when there was a delay in negotiating the terms of the scheme - and bringing it to the signature stage. At the same time, there was public disquiet that we were agreeing to take four thousand Malaysian based refugees in exchange for just eight hundred of our boat people.
Now the High court has placed an injunction to stop the process for two weeks while legal issues are determined on the legality of the scheme - and there is every chance that a flurry of additional applications to the court will delay movement indefinitely.
The people smugglers can smell victory and it seems that they are having no trouble convincing asylum seekers to pay the money and take the boat trip. Because this Malaysian deal has a limit of just eight hundred people we will soon have that number in the system waiting for a High court decision - and by then the Malaysian authorities will be becoming alarmed and wanting to back away from the deal - and certainly becoming unwilling to extend it further.
This was a good plan - but high on risk. Because of the need to appease the Greens and the strident opposition of the coalition there never was any hope of a fast and smooth transition from plan to action - and that was the key to success.
We can safely consider the Malaysian plan dead in the water ! Time to turn to plan B !
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