Saturday, 12 September 2009

The Fiji problem.

What promises to be a long term problem is emerging on Australia's Pacific ocean doorstep. A military dictator has seized control of the islands of Fiji, and despite numerous promises to return that country to democracy it seems like he has acquired a liking for the rewards of supreme power.

Theoretically this should be a problem for the United Nations, but the power struggle between capitalism and socialism, between east and west - and the vested interests encompassed by both have neutered that organization.

The Commonwealth has tossed Fiji out on it's ear and will not readmit them until democracy is restored, but this is obviously of little consequence to the strongman who now calls the shots, Commodore Frank Bainimarama.

The Commodore is head of the Fijian army, and the army are the ones with the guns.Because the Commodore is wise enough to treat his soldiers well and give them a sense of purpose no change in the power structure is likely.

Basically, Bainimarama has the upper hand. The United Nations can not muster the vote to allow it to act. The Commonwealth is a toothless tiger. Australia and New Zealand - as the most developed and strongest countries in the region - have a policy of not interfering in the affairs of other countries.

Probably little will change unless the Fiji military become more aggressive and this stops the tourist trade. The Fiji economy relies on tourists and if this source of income were to cease they would be in dire financial trouble.

The danger would come from financial desperation. Military strongmen will do almost anything to survive, and if that involves Fiji becoming a narco state - or playing host to extremist regimes - then anything is possible.

Unfortunately there are other micro states in the region with similar problems. It is possible that ambitious police of army commanders are watching Bainimarama with admiration - and Fiji may not be the last to suffer a power coup.

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