When the Treasurer rises to deliver his budget tonight there will be winners and losers - and in a recession the losers generally exceed the winners.
One persistent rumour is that this budget will drop the $ 14,000 first home buyers grant for existing homes, but retain the $ 21,000 grant for new homes.
That would certainly please both builders and the building materials industry, and it might even provide relief for the housing rental shortage. The first home buyers grants have lifted prices at the lower end of the housing market because of the rush to take advantage of the incentive and this has induced some recession hit investors to sell rental accommodation to restore liquidity.
There is a danger in pushing new home buyers into the higher priced new h0me market. This recession is far from over and we are warned to expect further rises in the unemployment statistics.
In such a scenario buyers might be wiser to stay in the lower cost, used home segment and cope with lower mortgages, but the lure of an extra $ 7,000 is sure to tempt many to take the plunge - and go for the excitement of buying a brand new, state of the art home.
The government is talking about schemes to help those in trouble because of retrenchment, but surely there is a limit as to how much money - and in such cases we are talking about money borrowed by the government - can be found to fund relief.
It all boils down to those thinking of buying doing their sums, making informed decisions and calculating the risks.
It would be unwise to take the plunge in the expectation that if things go wrong - the government will be there to put it's hand in it's pocket - and help out !
Tonight - Australia will wait for the newscast - hold it's breath - and put all those rumours to rest !
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