A nod and a wink !

Anybody who thinks that Gunns pulp mill proposal for Bell Bay, on the Tamar river in Tasmania is a doubtful starter must believe in fairies !

The Tasmanian government is desperate for the jobs and tax income it will provide - and little matters like environmental concerns are way down on their list of priorities.

The Tasmanian government is Hobart-centric. They would not allow anything to despoil the state capital - with it's magnificent harbour and towering Mount Wellington, but the rest of the state simply does not figure in their rush to attract industry.

The Federal government - of the same political persuasion - is torn between the need to bolster a faltering economy and it's need to keep the Green movement onside. By putting off a final decision it is hedging it's bets. Three years from now the economy could be in such dire straits that any sort of new industry would be welcomed with open arms, despite a few pollution problems.

Gunns pulp mill will need to find a financier willing to risk $ 2.1 billion and the project has got the go ahead to start building. The mill can be built but final approval for it to start operating will depend on the government accepting it's plans for the removal of waste - a known major problem for all engaged in the wood pulp industry.

It seems that the " nod and wink " scenario is in place. That financier will no doubt have a secret understanding that final approval will be coming and it would be beyond belief to imagine that a fully constructed, $ 2.1 billion plant would be left to sit idle on the banks of the Tamar river - because it lacked a signature on a final approval certificate.

The only question remaining is a decision on how the waste will be treated. There is a plan to dump it in deep water in Bass Strait, but this could harm a fishing zone and the most likely scenario could involve using a tanker to take it south and disperse it in the Great Southern Ocean - as is the practice used by another polluting Tasmanian industry, despite protests from the Greenies.

This is the usual smoke and mirrors of politics. Nobody wants to create a political storm by making a firm decision - so bets are hedged with " ifs, buts and maybes ".

It would be interesting to see what odds bookmakers would give on that plant starting operations in three years time !