A new war threat !

For half a century the world lived with the threat of a nuclear exchange. The US led western alliance faced off against the Russian led Warsaw Pact countries and both trained nuclear tipped missiles at one another.

Russia collapsed and for a time it looked like the world had entered a more peaceful stage - but recent events have revived a return of " the cold war ".

Russia has regained prosperity thanks to it's immense quantities of oil and gas and it's undisputed leader - Prime Minister Putin - seems determined not only to regain control of it's former allies but to take a dominant stance in Europe.

The mini war in Georgia sent an ominous signal. Georgia made a bad miscalculation when it sent troops into the breakaway provinces. It expected western help to stop a Russian invasion, and when this did no eventuate it was forced to concede territory and sue for peace.

One of the outcomes from this is a nervous France and Germany who are now backing away from expanding NATO into former Warsaw Pact countries. Obviously they fear Russian aggression putting them into a treaty obligation to resist Russian expansion - and resulting in war with Russia.

This sends a clear signal to the Russian president that the way is clear for his country to bully and intimidate it's neighbours - and an outright threat of invasion is not out of the question !

The huge sums available to Russia to renew it's armaments is daunting, and with the United States bogged down in Iraq and Afghanistan a renewed huge US military presence in Europe seems unlikely.

What happens next depends on a lot of things. If Russia is content to simply gobble up it's old neighbours the world will probably protest vigorously - and do nothing.

If Russia signals it's intention to expand beyond the Warsaw Pact countries and dominate Europe then we are probably destined to enter another arms race with missiles from both sides made ready and targeted across the Atlantic ocean.

Whether the world exists in peace or engages in a new cold war depends on what ambitions Prime Minister Putin puts into play.

On present indications - the future looks doubtful !