Tuesday, 26 June 2007

The gathering storm.

Ask the average person to name the most dangerous country in the world and you would probably get a variety of answers - North Korea, Iran, Afghanistan, Iraq - and a host of middle east states.
It could be that one of our allies in the war against terrorism is in the process of change - and just as Iran under the Shah was our close friend decades ago - internal change can convert friend to foe with bewildering speed.
The country at the cross roads is Pakistan. President Pervez Musharraf is locked in a constitutional battle with his iconic Supreme Court Chief Justice, Iftikhar Chaundhry.
Musharraf came to power by way of a coup and holds both the positions of president and chief of the armed forces. He has ambitions to serve a third term as president, something that is barred by his country's constitution. There is also pressure for the positions of president and military chief to be separated.
Chaundhry is a highly respected juror and the one man who may prevail in stopping Musharraf, but that may be at the price of another coup - and this time the emerging powers could be the sections of the army who have strong sympathy and support for the Taliban in neighbouring Afghanistan - and lean towards the ideology of al Qaeda.
There is no doubt that many in Pakistan are anti the west - and in particular the United States - and despite Musharraf holding the country on a secular course are giving aid and shelter to those engaged in jihad. If Musharraf falls - his replacement is unlikely to be a friend to the western powers.
That would bring into force a chilling scenario. Pakistan is a nuclear power. Not only has it tested a nuclear weapon but it also possesses rudimentary rocket delivery systems capable of reaching it's near neighbours.
The biggest fear is that a radical Islamic government might be tempted to supply a nuclear weapon to terrorists. The logical target would be an Israeli city such as Tel Aviv - and the repercussions from such an attack would be impossible to gauge.
Fortunately Pakistani nuclear weapons are not believed to include thermo-nuclear hydrogen weapons, but a bomb the size of that dropped on Hiroshima would still kill many thousands of people - and might even trigger world war three.
The emerging struggle in Pakistan should be watched with more than passing interest !

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