Abolishing Stamp Duty !

The average New South Wales home owner needs to consider this proposal to abolish stamp duty very carefully.  Every home in this state has already paid stamp duty when that home was purchased and this proposal intends to replace the tax with a small annual "property tax "that to some people sounds suspiciously like " rent ".

Initially, homes that have attracted stamp duty at time of purchase will be exempt from this property tax and the main loser will be the government.  Home purchases from the date of implementation will not pay stamp duty but instead will be billed annually for their share of the property tax.

It has yet to be decided how long properties that have already paid stamp duty will be exempt from this new tax but eventually  it will encompass all land in New South Wales and will be collected in similar manner to council rates.

At present, stamp duty is keeping many people out of home ownership because it represents about four   percent of the purchase price, and must be paid up front at the time of purchase.  Considering that the median price of a home in Sydney has now reached $ 1,211,488 that is a huge impost a buyer has to find as well as put down a deposit that will satisfy the loan application.

Obviously, people coming into the home market for the first time will gain a huge advantage, but those who have struggled and paid stamp duty and now own their home freehold will not welcome what will be to them a new tax, but they will gain an advantage if they need to downsize or sell and go into an aged care facility.

Under the present land tax regime, they will pay stamp duty on the new purchase because that tax applies on every property exchange. Initially, buyers have the option of paying stamp duty up front or choosing the property tax option, but that will only be available for a short period of time.  Then all purchases will be subject to the property tax.

The other factor involved is the shortfall in revenue the government will suffer when this new regime starts.  Instead of the bonanza from stamp duty this money will be replaced by a much smaller property tax contribution, and the rate in which the property tax is levied is very much in the hands of the government.

This proposal has its merits but all aspects need to be put on the table for public scrutiny before it is implemented.  Buying a house is usually the biggest transaction a citizen makes in his or her lifetime and some people get great satisfaction knowing their home is unemcumbered.  Obviously, there will be legal repercussions if land tax bills are allowed to accumulate unpaid.

It seems to be an option that will not suit all people.  Whether to pay a tax up front, or have it come around as a lesser amount each year  ?

The Modular Home Concept !

It is one of life's peculiarities that we are still building houses in much the same way as in the days of the Roman empire.  A vast range of trades come together to add their individual skills and the house rises slowly over a matter of weeks as each component is added.

Basically, we are still setting one brick on top of another  and consequently most new homes take many weeks to reach the finishing stage and building is considered a labour intensive industry.  It is one of the few that has not encompassed the speed and precision of automation of the factory produced product.

Basically, we are locked in to how the home we live in will look.  Appearance rates highly in making buying decisions and a modular home made in a factory will certainly lack the individuality that is possible with on site construction.

The modular concept is very flexible in the construction stage and can provide a wide range of room sizes to suit the owners needs, and they all fit together on site to form a finished house in a matter of hours rather than weeks.

The big advantage is that the wiring and plumbing is already built in and there is both temperature and noise insulation in place.  Heating and cooling can therefore be maintained at low cost without an adverse effect on the ecology.

The modular home of the future will become an inevitability.   The cost of these present labour intensive homes has sent the median price in Sydney to $ 1,211,488, which is a 4% increase on the December quarter.  Buying a home today involves a mortgage that the average person will take a lifetime to repay.

If that price continues to rise at the present rate wage inflation will certainly  follow.  In a few years the minimum wage will probably be set at fifty dollars an hour with a consequent blowout in the sum needed for a comfortable retirement.  In an age in which consumer goods are becoming cheaper, housing is fast moving in the opposite direction.

One of the big attractions of the modular home is that it can be purchased as needed, and added to as the family increases.  In old age, surplus rooms can be sold off and the entire modular structure replaced with a more modern design as needed.  The existing home can be relocated cheaply as a holiday home or form part our contribution to poor nations experiencing housing problems.

The population of Australia will continue to expand and we will need a lot more housing in the future. The modular concept is applicable to high rise as a means of fitting out modern structures, but it lends itself admirably to creating new suburbs quickly once the roads and their kerbs and gutters are in place.

The biggest challenge will be to convince home owners of the future to accept a move away from the look of conventional housing.   That will be the task of the clever design people.  In the past we have often seen function triumph over fashion. and usually it is the hip pocket nerve that makes the difference.

 

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Where Silence is Golden !

 There seems no doubt that elevating Margaret Court to the top rank of Australia's honours list this Australia day was an unwelcome mistake.  Particularly so, as it now seems that the main reason was to achieve gender balance because Rod Laver had received a similar elevation previously  for his contribution to the sport of tennis.

Long ago,. both players were giants who achieved overwhelming tennis fame at the very top of that sport and Margaret Court had already been recognised on the Australian Honours list, but she has been further elevated to Companion of the Order of Australia, which is our highest honour.

That elevation was surprising - and unwelcome - to a lot of Australian people because Margaret Court has chosen to air her views on the subjects of homosexuality, same sex marriage and other sexual matters that became lawful in this country in recent times.  Her views are heavily influenced by the bible and her condemnation of anything not sanctioned by the bible was both insulting and offensive to those who viewed the bible differently.

Some religious people support her views heavily and claim that she has the right to free speech.  She will not be prosecuted for holding those views, but free speech does come with limitations.  Should someone hurl racist abuse at a sporting event they would be removed from the ground and charged with a law breach.   They are entitled to their private point of view, but not permitted to offend others with it in a public place.

Awarding our top honour to such a controversial person had the effect of diminishing the honour in the eyes of many people..  A top broadcaster nominated for inclusion refused the honour and an artist who was previously honoured returned his medal in protest.  It is likely that similar action will be forthcoming down the thousands of people who have received recognition for their achievements in the lower order of this award.

In an ever diminishing number of countries, the laws of the church and the law of the land run in tandem. It is usual for those laws to come into conflict with the needs of the people disadvantaged by church law and consequently the will of the people has become paramount.   Such was the case in Australia when civil law set aside church law after it became evident that was the majority opinion.

There certainly are people in Australia who do not agree with homosexuality and do not approve of same sex marriage, and they are entitled to those views,.  But we live by the laws under which we are governed and the will of the people has chosen to put those laws in place, and they must be obeyed.

Margaret Court was ill advised to go public and use her fame to vilify the lifestyle that is now legal in Australia.   It is unlikely that her award will be withdrawn, but it will certainly serve as a lesson to others that there is a fine line between fame and infamy.

In future, those given this award will not greet it with the same degree of enthusiasm.

War by Misunderstanding !

 It seems we are entering a very dangerous time of armed conflict that will threaten the strength of our defence alliances.  China got away with tearing up the " one nation, two systems " deal it signed with Britain to deliver fifty years of limited autonomy to Hong Kong and now those demonstrating for freedom are being arrested to  mainland courts and will probably disappear forever into remote gulags.

Now Xi Jinping, China's supreme ruler is threatening to make good his demand that Taiwan be brought under mainland control.  China fought a civil war, which the Communists won and their opponents fled to what was then the island of Formosa, which they renamed Taiwan.

America has a defence alliance with Taiwan, causing China to hold its hand on invasion plans and now it seems Xi Jinping is keen to test the resolve of the new man in the Oval office.  Twenty-four Communist war planes recently flew through the Taiwan strait, posing a military threat to this democratic enclave. Taiwan is heavily defended, but it could not survive an invasion by the People's Liberation Army without outside help.

Perhaps Xi Jinping thinks the conditions are now in China's favour.  America is distracted by lingering support for outgoing president, Donald Trump and is fighting to bring the coronvirus pandemic under control.  China has a trade advantage with the rest of the world which might deliver a degree of neutrality on the Taiwan issue and it hopes that America would not risk a destructive war  over its attempt to regain control of a renegade province.

Several recent war campaigns have been fought without resorting to nuclear weapons and China may hope that a Taiwan invasion would proceed on similar terms.  It is ominous that the United States responded to that incursion in the Taiwan strait by moving the aircraft carrier Theodore Roosevelt into the South China sea, which China claims as sovereign home territory despite rejection by the UN.

All this has implications for Australia. We have a defence alliance with America and we have long sheltered under the American nuclear umbrella. China is our biggest trade customer and any disruption would significantly affect our economy.  The main trade route to and from Australia passes through the South China sea.

There is always the danger that this rivalry on the high seas may accidently trigger a shooting war.  To underline their claimed sovereignty of that waterway, Chinese pilots of war planes skim dangerously close to foreign warships and aircraft, which could result in a fatal misunderstanding.

Perhaps the biggest danger is that Xi Jinping may misread American resolve and commit the PLA to an invasion of Taiwan. Any armed attack on an American aircraft carrier battle group would invite an instant response which would be impossible to limit.

This Taiwan issue is fast becoming the greatest danger to world peace.

The " Tobacco " Conundrum !

 Advice from the statistician reveals a chilling death prognosis for Aboriginal Australians.   One in every two deaths can be directly related to their use of tobacco and the nicotine it contains.  These are compelling statistics and the analysis released by the Centre for Independent Studies  compares the death in Indigenous communities with the rest of the country.

It found that smoking caused 37 % of deaths at any age in Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander adults, but that this increased to about half for those aged over 45.  Using data from 1,888 people it revealed that those who never smoked lived ten years longer than those who did smoke.

The " Quit smoking " message is slowly getting through to Aboriginal people, but at a much slower rate than for other Australians and this is despite the price of tobacco products being artificially increased to prohibitive levels on a regular basis.

What to do next poses something of a quandary for the government.  That ever increasing price of tobacco products is simply a tax measure that pours money into government coffers and tobacco is a legitimate farm crop that is important to the farming industry.

Nicotine is addictive and some people find they can not do without it, despite the cost and there would certainly be a political backlash if tobacco products were banned in Australia, despite the lives that would be saved.  There is also a doubt in many people's minds that much would change.  We already have bans on addictive drugs and yet they are still pouring into the country as smuggled imports.

A ban on tobacco products would simply add tobacco as an added volume to what is the international drug trade that thrives despite draconian penalties. The amazing profits that can be made from drug dealing make the risk of getting caught a favourable risk equation in many criminal minds.

It seems we have taken all the anti smoking measures possible short of banning the product in Australia. It has been removed from all advertising media and it can not  be openly displayed on shop shelves.  It's packaging has been made deliberately hideous and heavy fines now apply for smoking in many public places.

The price will go even higher as we try and tax tobacco out of existence, but even that is being circumvented by the smugglers.  Every country town and city suburb has a network of clandestine dealers distributing both cigarettes and loose tobacco that has been smuggled into the country.

Sadly, we are now finding that tobacco deaths are falling predominantly on the original people of this nation and while it remains a legal product we are condoning those deaths.  The option for a total ban on tobacco now seems inevitable  !

A Medical Challenge !

 This coronavirus pandemic has so far killed two million people around the world and there is no end in sight,  despite a number of vaccines being either in production or being actively jabbed into the arms of citizens in many countries.

That word " Vaccine " means different things to different people.  Initially, medical science was looking for something that would provide lifetime immunity from the virus as has been the outcome with diseases like polio which ravaged earlier generations.

The vaccines presently on offer come with a lot of small print.  They offer a varying degree of protection, but we are not sure if they simply reduce the effect of the disease or prevent it recurring in milder form if the vaccinated person has the misfortune to again become infected.

What we have learned is that coronavirus has the ability to develop new characteristics according to the surrounding environment, hence we have a distinctly different format emerging in Britain and South Africa, which we hope will be contained by one or all of the vaccines on offer.

These emerging strains have so far not substantially increased the death rate and merely increased the rate of infection from person to person.   What we are seeing is not something new.  Every year we live with a disease that takes a new form that we seek to combat with a differing vaccine formulae each year.

That disease is called " influenza " and so far medical science has not been able to devise any form of permanent vaccine to eradicate it from spreading through the world population each winter.  We try and keep the " flu " under control by way of an annual flu jab which tries to predict what form the disease will take as it moves between the northern and southern hemispheres.

It must be apparent that influenza and coronavirus share a common characteristic and that the vaccines on offer must eventually be supplanted by an annual innoculation that changes periodically to encompass the different strains of coronavirus that are constantly emerging.   It may be possible to combine resistance to both in a common annual jab.

What is very clear is that we have failed to develop a cure for coronavirus. Developing effective new medication is a long and complicated process that requires constant testing to discover side effects.  When coronavirus burst onto the scene there was a high degree of urgency and short cuts were accepted and the vaccines on offer now were rushed to market.

What we now face is similar to the work done on influenza.  It will be expensive and time consuming, but it is essential because coronavirus has made the change from the animal world to affecting humans and it may not be the last to cross that barrier.

An End to " Google " ?

 A long time ago most Australian homes had at least one newspaper delivered each morning and every radio station relayed both the midday and seven pm news broadcast from the ABC.  We also had competing " afternoon " newspapers, plus countless " free " suburban weekly news sheets distributed by church and civic organizations.

That was an era when both the Saturday and Wednesday  newspapers were heavy with job advertisements and eagerly awaited by those seeking work.  All these newspapers were sustained by advertising revenue and little changed until television arrived on the Australian scene in 1956. 

That was when the way we viewed the news changed dramatically.  Television delivered a brief synopsis of the news and the finer detail was carried in newspaper reporting.  Competing newspaper, radio and television newsrooms searched for stories, until the advent of computers generated the phenomenon we know as " Google ", followed some time later by " Facebook ".

Google can be described as a " search engine " and the commercial world quickly tuned to it as an advertising source.  Today, we sit at our computer and " Google " a subject and are presented with detailed instant knowledge - and advertising pertinent to the subject searched.

Even the big city newspapers are retreating as readership drops and regional newspapers are closing down.  Google simply uses the material their newsrooms gather without contributing to the cost and the government is considering legislation to force Google to contribute a share of that cost.

Google is resisting and now there is the threat that they will withdraw their services from Australia if that threat to charge for news becomes a reality.  This free use of news services is a world wide problem and Google obviously fears that if it is decided in favour of newspapers in Australia that decision would have wider ramifications.  In Australia, Google is sustained by the four billion dollars in advertising revenue this search engine delivers to its coffers.

At this stage, the outcome is still to be determined by negotiation.  That threat to withdraw services from Australia is probably a bluff because four billion dollars in lost advertising money would certainly bring competing  search engines into the market to replicate what Googler had to offer.

Google would also be aware that should its Australian services be replaced with a competing search engine, that service would obviously look to expand into other countries and the world wide monopoly that Google enjoys would be under serious threat.

We would face a news vacuum if Google withdrew because in today's world " Googling " something has become a way of life.  The expected outcome is that what Google is expected to pay for news will be decided by an independent tribunal and will be less than either side is demanding.

It is very unlikely that Google will seriously withdraw its services from Australia !

The Price of Gas !

Australia is one of the world's biggest natural gas exporters, and yet we are desperately short of enough of it to serve homes and industry in the eastern states.  The emphasis has been on exports and no provision was made to ensure that enough gas was set aside for domestic use.

That has been causing an ongoing battle between the farm lobbv and industrial concerns who want to extract gas from underneath the eastern states,  Unfortunately, this is below our best agricultural land and to free it and bring it to the surface would require " fracking " and that is likely to interfere with the aquifers which make the surface so productive with vegetable crops.

The partial answer sought has been work on creating a gas hub at Port Kembla which will enable giant gas carrying ships to feed gas into the eastern pipeline, either from the gas fields of Western Australia or as imports from other gas exporting countries such as Russia.

One of the problems with that approach is that the world price of natural gas seems to be ever expanding as it gains market to replace coal.  The pressure is on to reduce the amount of carbon we generate and natural gas emits less than coal when used for electricity generation.  In the past three years the price of natural gas on the world market has risen from $4 to $5 a gigajoule - to $8 to $10 a gigajoule.   It would be a supreme optomist who expected that price to remain steady.

 Australian governments of diverse political persuasions have neglected to reserve enough of the recently discovered natural gas for our own supply.  The emphasis has been on export and how this product has been the salvation of our economy, but what is involved is far more important than just cooking meals and heating water in Australian east coast homes.

Gas is critical to our economic recovery.  We need a sustainable supply at a low price if we are to sustain  manufacturing industry in this country and gas is an integral part of two important market segments which are not sustainable without it.

Two important existing Australian industries manufacture fertilizer and explosives.  Fertilizer is used both on Australian farms ands as an export and  explosives are an important tool in the mining industry.  Both need a sustainable supply and a better price structure if they are going to continue.

A hungry world is going to need more fertilizer if it hopes to feed the growing masses and Australia is growing a nascent arms industry.  One of the issues retarding a better natural gas price for industry here is  the addition of costs for export processing, which is not applicable to gas for domestic use but is applied at the point of extraction from the ground.   It is essential that such costs are removed from natural gas directed to the internal Australian economy.

The prime minister promised a price trigger for export gas control last year, and that has not yet been delivered.  It is important that this local product give Australia a marketing edge by way of supply sustainability and price competition  !

Learning a Trade !

It has long been a fact of life that learning a skill is the way to gain a permanent job and with it a better  than average pay packet.  Young people are advised to go to university and earn a qualification, but there is the alternative of gaining an apprenticeship with a skilled craftsperson

The only problem is that this is not practical for a middle aged person who needs to learn a completely new skill in an ever changing world.  Apprenticeships are usually a four year term that involve low wages initially as the apprentice gains skills that compensate his or her employer a return for work done.

The Australian Productivity Commission is pushing for a move away from purely time based skill accreditation.  Sone people pass through the learning process faster than others and the present regime is entirely time based around that four year completion

That proposal is getting stiff opposition from both Industry groups and the Trade Unions who warn that moving away from traditional workplace based apprenticeships could threaten training quality.  This skill factor not only protects the tradesperson from death or injury on the job, but also protects the public who pay for his or her services

For instance, a plumber certified to install gas to a home needs advanced safety training. A gas leak can be extremely dangerous and gas explosions have been known to level large buildings and cause mass casualties, but many plumbers never work on gas installation in their entire working lives.  

It can be argued that the various degrees of risk can be identified by the license applicable.  In many cases, the person is actually overly qualified for the low grade task undertaken. Most apprenticeship courses withhold certification until every aspect of the trade involved has been covered and a trainee can be useful with skills for only part of that work.

The Commission is suggesting that expansion of student loans for  more certificate and diploma courses and says more contestability  in funding arrangements for publicly owned TAFE providers would help governments get a better return on the $ 6.4 billion spent on vocational education and training.

This old apprenticeship training relied on young people leaving school and immediately starting a four year course to learn a trade.  They were probably still living at home, and hence a low wage was not a restraint. Today, we have mature people with a need to change direction several times during their working lives and this delivers a completely new aspect to both renumeration and the type of training available. 

This suggestion merits more than just a cursory rejection.  Many vocations suit skill upgrades on an " as needed " basis as science adds more complexity by way of innovation. The learning process is still stuck in the horse and cart age.  It requires twenty-first century thinking.

Managing A Mortgage Crisis !

The news that the " mortgage holiday " is coming to an end next month is worrying news for those depending on price security for the Australian housing market.  The fact that thousands of Australians were temporarily forced out of work by the coronavirus lockdown could have created  a disastrous price retreat if the banks had insisted that mortgage payments be met as usual during that crisis.

Instead, they wisely offered relief on a case by case basis and as the majority returned to their jobs the mortgage payments quickly returned to pre crisis levels.  Unfortunately, it seems that there are now about ninety thousand people who have not regained their previous employment and who will be affected when the banks insist that contract level payments resume.

The banks are promising that they will " negotiate " rather than force sales to recover delinquent mortgage payments, but unfortunately there are many people who are unlikely to ever regain their previous earning capacity because of ill health or changes in commerce and therefore mortgage foreclosure is inevitable.

We need to remember the recession that happened in 2008 when the banks foreclosed on a small number of delinquent mortgages.  Instantly, the buyers became an extinct species and price retreats of at least ten percent raged across the suburbs.  Fortunately, that lasted less than three months before buyer demand surged back and the house price resumed its former upward trend.

One of the reasons for that house price recession was the ineptitude of the banks to market what was to them an unusual financial asset.  Foreclosed houses were simply left untended to reinforce the image of insolvency.  The grass remained uncut and the banks were keen to accept any offer that restored the money owing on that unpaid mortgage.

It was not hard to find a foreclosed home in the suburbs and canny buyers improving them for resale,. cut the lawns and applied fresh paint - and made a handsome profit.  The loser was the original mortgage holder, who usually not only lost their home but still owed the bank for the unpaid term payments until foreclosure.

It is inevitable that some of these unpaid mortgages will eventually fail to find resolution and end in termination.  Rather than sell at a loss, the banks have an asset that can provide a good return on the rental market, which is far outside the bank's usual area of expertise.

They need to either expand their operational reach to gain that expertise, or come to an arrangement with a Real Estate firm with a substantial rental book to manage such assets on their behalf.  The one certain way to create buyer uncertainty if foreclosures become necessary would be for the banks maintain their usual ham fisted  attitude to foreclosed homes and leave them empty and untended to deepen the crisis.

Hopefully, they learned a lesson from 2008  !

The Bandits Within !

 The nature of stolen property investigated by police varies widely over the course off a year but the boys in blue were in unfamiliar territory when the missing item was six hundred kilograms of Salmon that appeared to go missing on a daily basis.

A processing plant in Sydney's inner west processed premium Salmon products for the cities growing taste for this delicacy and its directors became concerned when the profit level dropped unexpectedly.  They called in the auditors, who suggested police action was necessary.

It seems that six hundred kilograms of prime Salmon was missing every day and the investigation concluded that this was being written off as simply " waste " .  The conclusion was that about 250 tonnes of Salmon had been stolen and this had a worth of $4 million dollars.

The police began questioning staff and soon two female clerical workers, aged  30 and 31 were under arrest.  This led to three men aged 32, 30 and 49 who worked in the processing procedure to join them in the Campbelltown Magistrates court where all were charged with "  larceny as clerks or servants " - and given bail.  They will all reappear in court on February 22.

What is unusual is that these five trusted members of the company's staff acted as a cabal and managed to  spirit tonnes of prime fish out the door with the discrepancy being written off as waste.  The police are unsure if this theft occurred daily, or if a larger quantity was moved at irregular intervals.  They are still investigating the likely end source of this stolen product.

The five people charged have been dismissed by their employer and it seems likely the company will recover from this loss, but the investigation will certainly make other businesses think long and hard about internal security. It seems evident that internal security controls were sufficiently lax that a plan to divert production for staff profit was able to go undetected for at least six months.

This case will highlight the imperative of having the company records subjected to regular inspection by an astute firm of auditors.  A production loss of four million dollars would be glaringly evident and if it were explained away as simply an increase in waste in the production process a review of manufacturing would be called for.

Whenever a criminal case of this nature occurs, it brings into question the integrity of the board of management and the function of the senior people actually running daily operations..  Any significant drop in production output should spark an investigation to discover the cause.

Council Rates Rise !

 Electing members of the local council to govern the locality where we lived was the most basic form of democracy.  We put in their hands the decisions on what sort of  services our council would provide and paying for those services is reflected in the annual council rates bill.

Unfortunately, some councils have been spending beyond their means and have accrued vast debts which are spinning out of control.  The state government stepped in and forced council amalgamations on the basis of achieving economy of scale..  It was reasoned that mega councils could achieve labour saving equipment and a workforce that could cut costs significantly.

Individual councils adopted very different methods of setting the rates that would apply and one of the common relief strategies was to charge the lower rate on suburbs containing the lower socio-economic class of citizens and where house selling prices were below the city average.

Ability to pay was the criteria used.  Most cities developed along the lines of the more affluent suburbs with their bigger houses paying higher council rates and consequently gaining more parks and better facilities than their poorer cousins.

We now face the situation that some councils are on the verge of bankruptcy.  In one recent emergency, a council had insufficient funds on hand to pay its own staff and appealed for an emergency loan from the state government.  Others have work backlogs than are measured in decades and have applied to the government for permission to move beyond rate pegging in a desperate search for more money.

The state government is now imposing a demand that each council rating system adopt a common approach to setting rates.  Under this system, rates will rise sharply in those poorer suburbs and the government has insisted in a four year time scale to achieve rate parity and ease the burden on individual ratepayers.

One of the inevitable outcomes of a sharp rise in council rates in the poorer suburbs will be a rent increase to recoup the added cost. We will be in danger of dispossessing the low paid workers who are essential for keeping the inner city working if rent rises drive them to live on the city perimeter and face an impossible commute to get to work.

Council rates have a big influence on buying decisions when it comes to real estate.  It is certainly a factor the banks and other lending institutions take into account when assessing the applicants ability to service a mortgage at their particular pay level.

Unfortunately, much of this council mess can be attributed to ratepayers electing councillors with grandiose ideas that are impractical in fiscal terms.  Those promised improvements attract votes and often very unsuitable people find themselves in power with disastrous outcomes.

That will only improve when we stop voting along political lines and start evaluating each individual contestant on their ability to deliver what they promise.   That is the only way to achieve rate stability  !

The Need for Concerted World Action !

 The death toll from this coronavirus pandemic has just ticked over two million on a world wide basis and the victims have been predominantly elderly people.  Put simply, COVID-19 is an influenza type disease that primarily attacks the lungs, and older people are less able to withstand the further deterioration it causes.

What is alarming is that this pandemic has gained the ability to develop new patterns and we are encountering new strains emerging in different countries.  Fortunately, this affects the rate of infection rather than the severity of the disease and there is hope that these new strains will be covered by the range of vaccines that we have been able to develop and put into practice.

A United Nations scientific team has at last been granted entry to China to try and determine how - when and where this new disease made the breakover from animals to humans.  The Chinese government is sensitive to any form of blame for the outbreak and claim that the disease originated in Europe and moved to China in frozen food imports.  How wide the team will be granted access to follow where research leads is yet to be determined.

This is an entirely new disease that had forerunners that gave early warning.  It has taken this world's science nearly a full year to develop several vaccines that promise a degree of protection and the danger is that the disease is still capable of developing new characteristics.   The death of two million people in a world population of about seven billion is not significant, but should the disease gain the ability to increase mortality across all age groups it would pose a threat to civilization as we know it..

Back in the Middle Ages what was termed the " Black Death " decimated nearly half the population of the countries it scourged, and in our inconnected world it would be impossible to halt its spread.  This is probably the greatest danger facing our world other than the disaster of world countries going to war against one another with nuclear weapons.

What is insane is the diversity of preventable action undertaken across the world.  Countries that were slow to act or timid in imposing controls have the disease out stripping their medical facilities and impacting on their economies.  The bodies of the dead are stacking up in temporary morgues and mass graves are again becoming a reality.

Science has long predicted that the end of the world will be caused by a pandemic, and we have one brewing mischief evolving on our very doorstep.  This one is not killing enormous numbers of people, but it is destroying jobs and trashing economies that may later lower the standard of living and result in a growing mass of "peasants " who are excluded from the progress of the past.

What is missing is world leadership.   There was the expectation that in such a crisis the United Nations would take control and coordinate world resources for the common good, but the world body has degenerated into political groupings that is little better than a " talk shop ".

Falls from Windows !

 Our ambulance paramedics respond to all sorts of emergencies and often their intervention is the deciding factor between life and death.  In the majority of call outs they are accompanied by the police who exercise crowd control and investigate if any laws were broken.  This is necessary because excited bystanders sometimes intervene and delay urgent treatment.

This week an ambulance crew was called to an address in Mortdale when a caller reported that a child had fallen from a window.  On arrival, they treated a four year old boy who had suffered a fall of about eight metres, causing a head injury.  The child was immediately stabilized and taken to hospital for further examination because a fall of that nature can cause serious internal injuries.

More people now live in multi story apartment buildings and a spate of children falling from windows resulted in new window regulations being applied to prevent that happening.  All windows above ground floor level are required to have safety locks that prevent the window being opened wider than the gap through which a child would fit.

This was made necessary by the existing habit of window security relying on mesh screens designed to repell insects.  Should a child's weight press against this barrier it was prone to dislodge and after a number of falls resulting in serious injury or death the fitting of locks to restrict window opening became mandatory.

This applies to all windows, both in owner occupied apartments and in rentals and ensuring the standard was met was supposed to be shared by both the council and the estate agent when a property was offered on the rental market.  All that is required is a relatively cheap device screwed into the sliding rail to restrict the window opening to the required safety measure.

Some councils employ a strict inspection regime to ensure that this safety requirement is met but it is also evident that in some areas there is little effort to comply.  Estate agents are required to ensure that windows pass this safety test before a property is let and it should be again checked at every inspection, and once again compliance is varied.

All too often children's cots or play areas are near windows and it is in the nature of children to explore.  The presence of a fly screen gives the illusion of a safety barrier but this is easily dislodged by the weight of a child pressing against it.  This is a danger area that goes unnoticed by many parents

This recent ambulance call out should be a wake up call..  We have weeks of summer remaining and that is a time people open windows to let in a little fresh air.  If sliding locks are not in place they are also opening an area of danger for their children.

The legislation to close that danger is in place. Now what is required is the will for its compliance !

Locked Down for Safety !

 Perhaps it has not dawned on many people yet, but the health demand that we wear a mask to cover our breathing when outdoors opens a new crime avenue.  In the past, anyone with any sort of face covering aroused suspicion and the law required those wearing full face motorcycle helmets to remove them before entering banks and other financial institutions.

Now the majority of people we pass in the street are wearing a face mask, and it has become difficult to recognise friends and family in a crowd.  A recent crime report reveals a new risk emerging that will have appeal to the hoodlum elements who prowl the city after dark.

A 32 year old man drove into the drive--thru lane of a McDonalds restaurant at Eagle Vale on Sunday night.   A stranger wearing a face mask walked up to the car and opened the driver's door, produced what looked like a hand gun and motioned for the driver to walk away from his car.  At risk of his life, that driver complied.

The bandit then slid into the drivers seat and hijacked the car.  This marooned customer got immediate help from McDonalds staff and the police were called.  He was able to describe what the bandit was wearing, but would be unable to pick out a face in a police lineup.  The police alerted their mobile patrols to look for the missing vehicle.

It was quickly located, undamaged just five hundred metres away in an Eagle Vale reserve.  Either the thief lost his nerve, knowing police cars have model and make detection units installed which scan a car stream to detect stolen vehicles, or he brazenly decided to hijack transport to get him closer to his home.

All this happened at 1-30 am when the movement of people enjoying revelry is reaching its peak.  The gun produced may have been a replica, but a wise car occupant is unlikely to risk his life in combat with an armed thief., and that is the advice also recommended by the police.

The police take this type of crime seriously and the car owner had his vehicle towed away by the police for investigation by their forensic team.  It is likely that the hi-jacker left fingerprints or DNA evidence of the crime and if he is on record the cops will soon be banging on his door.

Of course, that car owner had a frightening experience and will suffer a time lag before the police examination of his car ends and it is returned to him, but is seems that car hi-jacking is a new crime trend emerging in this country and it is being given respectability and cover by the edicts to help contain this coronavirus pandemic.

Perhaps a good reason for drivers to review car security.  The modern car has door security lockable from the inside and it may be wise to travel with that option chosen.  It is quite possible that this brazen theft in a drive-thru queue may be the start of a trend !

Impeachment !

 The world watched high drama taking place in America when the vote for impeachment of the President took place in the Capitol building ringed  with National Guard troops in full battle order.  Trump had the magnetism to convince his hard core followers that his claim that the November election was rigged against him was a conspiracy and had stormed the building in a bid to keep him in office.

The  aftermath is clear.  Donald Trump will be recorded in the history books as an aberration.  Like his predecessor, Richard Nixon, he broke the law and was driven from office despite dividing the nation along political lines.

This impeachment will prevent him carrying out his threat to stand again for President in four years time.  He may still have a degree of backing by redneck supporters, but that impeachment makes him ineligible to throw his hat into the ring again and once he steps from office it is quite possible that he may face court action over his tax returns and questionable business activities.

Donald Trump was reputed to be a billionaire and the family fortune was invested heavily in major landmark buildings and golf courses.  The public is now walking away from using those assets as their way of showing dissent and this throws a question mark over future profitability.

This Trump impeachment will bring necessary change to Americas.  The country that was so vocal against apartheid in South Africa has its own barriers against people of colour.   They are restricted in where they may live and work, and in any confrontation with the police they are likely to be shot and killed.  It is rare for police to face charges when that happens.

There is a growing white supremacist movement in the United States, which Donald Trump encouraged.  Trump supported world leaders who ruled by force and ignored the democratic process.  America is in competition with China for world trade leadership and the support of other regimes will be important in deciding that issue.

For many decades, America was the leader of the free world.  When Trump first took office, he turned his back on those obligations and America was consumed by self interest.  Our planet is facing ecological disaster from a rising temperature and climate change and it is important that the great powers work in tandem if this is to be circumvented.

Basically, Trump's removal brings a new beginning.  The days of the same old faces being returned, election after election is giving way to a challenge from the rank and file who are wearied by the political impasse that has blocked all and every form of progress.  Hopefully, we may see a lot more " across the aisle " cooperation in the future.

Thankfully, America may be turning back to the nation we followed and trusted before the Trump phenomenon changed everything !

The " Retirement " Question ?

 More money in your pay packet now  ?   Or more in your superannuation fund to finance a better life when you retire ?   Those are the options being considered by the government as we start to emerge from a pandemic that has decimated many jobs and has yet to deliver a final jobs outcome.

Australian workers were generally overdue for a wage increase when that coronavirus roared out of China and threw the economy into a tail spin.  Industry was making record profits and we were starting to see difficulty in attracting labour but wages remained static as the promise of both automation and AI looked likely to dominate the new horizon.

At that time, the government had a plan to increase the percentage of their employees pay packet employers are obliged to pay into superannuation from the present 9.5% to 12 %.  That was naturally resisted by employers who claimed they were battling to continue to exist under the compulsory lockdowns demanded to combat this virus.

Any form of pay increase at the present time is likely to accelerate the extension of the " gig " economy in which direct employment is disguised as " self employed contractors " providing a service which deprives them of holiday pay, sickness pay and a host of other benefits.  Much of Australian industry is moving away from direct employment of permanents and filling those gaps with " hourly paid  casuals " who received a twenty-five percent pay loading to compensate them for the loss of those benefits.

The big difference is that the permanently employed work a full week, while " casuals " only work the limited hours their employer finds them necessary.  In many cases they do not earn a " living wage " and work for several employers to cover peaks in different business cycles.

Deciding whether more money goes into pay packets or superannuation seems certain to bring a fight from the Labor opposition and the unions on one hand and the giant Superannuation industry on the other, which manages and invests the funds deposited  to create the nest egg workers need when they retire.

This superannuation industry claims that the present 9.5% employer contributions do not deliver sufficient accumulation to allow the average worker to have an adequate retirement.  The obvious meat in this sandwich are the many small businesses who were forced to close their doors during the pandemic and still have not returned to profitable business levels.   They claim they can not afford either higher pay or a higher superannuation levy.

The companies that invest people's superannuation is a three trillion behemoth in the government's sights for revision.  It has many components which deliver a very satisfactory annual return, but unfortunately there are also many individual funds that perform poorly.  Retirement outcome often depends on the choice made when an employer sets up a fund initially.

This is an issue that the average worker will pursue with more than passing interest.  We all hope for a comfortable retire3ment, but that is only possible if we have an efficient superannuation investment industry and the employer contributions leave industry viable.

If the wrong decision brings a job drought it will mean many retirees have to learn to manage on the old age pension  !

The " Triage " Approach !

 Around the world, several coronavirus vaccines are in use to protect citizens from this pandemic and vaccinations will start in Australia as early as next month or at the latest in March, The scientists responsible for their creation admit that none delivers a hundred percent protection against this disease.

At best, the vaccine will reduce the severity of the impact on human bodies and it is hoped it will sharply reduce the death rate which is now runs well over a million casualties world wide.  The urgency of bringing it to our defence has shortened the usual testing programmes accorded to new drugs.

One of the factors excluded from testing was the effect this vaccine may have on pregnant women - and  their babies.  As a result, the World Health Organization ( WHO ) said it did not recommend that the Pfizer vaccine be given to pregnant women, with the exception of health staff  at unavoidable risk of exposure, or those with complicated health systems.

We are just days away from the start of a programme that  must strike fear into the heart of Australian women of child bearing age.  For those already pregnant, the decision whether or not to vaccinate is now crucial and for others, an unexpected pregnancy will be a calamity.    Until the safety of this vaccine is  decided there will probably be a m assive gap in the Australian birth rate.

Much of the Australian economy is geared towards a constant flow of children through the  system,  We have a massive number of early learning centres which allow mothers to take their place in the work force and those children go on to primary school, and from there to high school and university.   The needs of that geographic is what drives a percentage of Australian industry and any interruption will be commercially catastrophic.

At this stage, there is nothing to suggest that these vaccinations post any sort of risk to pregnant women or their babies, but because they were not part of the testing programme carried out we have no outcome either way.   Even if a testing programme gets under way immediately, it will be many months before it delivers a satisfactory result.

When vaccinations start in the next few weeks the decision whether to have the jab or reject it will fall heavily on the individual choice of pregnant women across all strata of our society.  Nursing homes and aged care facilities are big employers of women and this virus is particularly deadly for the aged.  It is likely that this work sector will automatically terminate unvaccinated workers as a safety measure.

The decision to release vaccination on the community came at government level and was probably inevitable.  The disease was delivering a high mortality rate and wrecking the economy and some risk  must be accepted to stabilize the nation.   Had the effects of vaccination been tested on pregnant women and its effect on their babies, the release for the public would haver been delayed by months - and possibly years.

That is the way the triage system works.  Make the decision where the greatest numbers with the highest priority  can be saved, and that is exactly what is happening with this vaccination release  !

Ongoing " Noise " Problem !

 " The Rocks " is one of the oldest parts of Sydney and it contains the " Sirius " building, adjacent to our Harbour bridge and an address with stunning harbour and city views.  These apartments were showing the ravages of age but were highly valued by their Housing Commission tenants when it was decided to sell the site for redevelopment and use the money to build new public housing on the city perimeter.

There is no doubt that a luxury apartment on the Sirius site will be a multi million dollar investment and much sought after.  The plans call for seventy-six apartments, a pool, gym, cafe and other commercial interests - and parking for seventy cars.

Right next door to the Sirius site is another still functioning example of Sydney's earlier days.   The   Mercantile Hotel is Sydney's oldest Irish pub and in 2019 it had plans approved for a rooftop bar and restaurant to enliven Sydney's night life and take advantage of its marvellous city views.

The rebuilding of the Sirius apartments is a $ 125 million project and now there are doubts that these two developments, side by side - are compatible.   It is obvious that some of the lower Sirius apartments will be impacted by this rooftop bar of the hotel.

What is feared is a repeat of the ongoing controversy that has affected retail operations of Sydney's iconic entertainment landmark - Luna Park.    This opened in 1935 on land in North Sydney, a mere six hundred metres from what would later become the northern end of the Sydney Harbour bridge..  It later became surrounded by high rise apartment towers as north Sydney became a popular residential suburb because of its views and proximity to the city centre.

The residents in these towers constantly complain about the noise from people enjoying themselves at Luna Park and the fun rides there have been restricted to lesser hours and in some cases banned.  People  went to court to have it reduced even when buying apartments overlooking Luna Park were aware of this noise problem, but still went to court to try to force the entertainment venue to become uneconomic and close.

There are calls for this Sirius development to be suitably insulated to avoid penetration from the rooftop bar and restaurant approved next door.   It's license  will permit it to seat one hundred and fifty patrons both inside and outside and operate during week nights until 10 pm.

Pressure is building to have all Sirius apartments within a hundred metres of the Mercantile Hotel  equipped with acoustic seals and double glazing.   This rooftop garden will be a welcome addition to Sydney's night life and the city has suffered an agonising live music retreat in recent years.  It would make sense to take steps in the construction stage to reduce this noise problem early by the correct use of insulating material.

A lesson should have been learned from the Luna Park controversy.

The " Discourteous " Few !

 The threat posed by the coronavirus pandemic caused spectator numbers allowed into the Sydney Cricket Ground to watch Australia play India in a cricket test to be sharply reduced.   Those that got to watch the game live from the stands were the lucky people because the rest of Australia was ordered to stay at home and be content with watching the test on television.

Without that ban, the Sydney Cricket Ground would have been packed to capacity, and yet a small section of the crowd within the ground chose to shame the great tradition of Australian sportsmanship by shouting racial abuse at the Indian players.

Those Indian sportsmen were seriously affronted and the television cameras recorded the action that followed.   The police were quick to descend on the troublemakers and they were escorted out of the stadium and the likely outcome is that they will not be allowed access to any sporting code for the indefinite future.

This was not an isolated incident.  Both Rugby League and Australian Rules codes of football have been plagued by fans shouting racial vilification whenever an Aboriginal or coloured immigrant gains team selection and appears on the field.

In particular, Australian Rules was previously mainly popular in the southern states but its rise to becoming part of the national competition made it popular in Queensland and the Northern Territory, and it was quickly found that young Aboriginal men had an affinity for the code.   As a result, selectors were   quick to sign up recruits and there are now many Aboriginal players in the states mix.

It is a big change for a young  Aboriginal to make the move from a small inland community to one of Australia's great cities and find they have become a celebrity for their football prowess, and it can be very discouraging to receive abuse from the spectators aimed at the colour of their skin.

Unfortunately, skin colour harks back to the days when Europeans thought they had the right to claim land they found in their travels and so the world was mainly composed of colonial empires.  These are now self governing countries  and the integration of economies has resulted in the mix of skin colours becoming normal in most nations.

We live in cosmopolitan Australia and we have accepted immigrants from most parts of the world.  In fact, we are a prime migration destination and at any one time there are thousands of people languishing in refugee camps around the world hoping to be accepted for settlement here

That incident at the cricket in Sydney involved no more than half a dozen people, which was very clear when they were publicly frog marched from the arena by the police.  There will probably always be a few larrikins affected by alcohol who misbehave in a crowd, but the Indian cricket team was warmly welcomed to this country - As Australians are welcome in India.

Freedom to Lie ?

 Facebook and Twitter are media platforms created by young people who are savvy with the electronic world and who have made a fortune from their creations.   Donald Trump is essentially a politician and land developer who mainly used both these media approaches to win election as the president of the United States.

Trump cleverly  used this new social media to do everything from announce his personal policy for the nation as to hire and fire the very people he needs to run the country.  It was a novel approach and it found favour with working class people.  He gained a vast following by making promises of a return to an earlier age.

During the four years he served in the White House he antagonised many of America's friends abroad and withdrew America from some of its obligations to foster a better and safer world.  When his term in office came up for renewal and he was defeated for a further four year term he falsely claimed the other side had cheated and his election victory was stolen.

Using Facebook and Twitter he convinced a multitude of redneck followers to storm the Capitol building and trash the offices of the men and women who serve the nation.  There were several deaths in this confrontation which was broadcast live around the world by the media.  Both Facebook and Twitter temporarily suspended Trump's access because it was being used to foster anarchy and now both have blocked him from access indefinitely.

This raises the question of whether Facebook and Twitter have a legitimate place in world community when both their conduct and policy is entirely governed by the wishes of the people who created them ?  Contributors may choose to remain anonymous and input is known to originate in foreign countries where " trolls " and linked computer output can give the impression that the opinions expressed has wide support across the American nation.

Should contributors to Facebook and Twitter be forced to identify themselves and be subject to the same defamation laws for incorrect material that is published in newspapers ? We cherish our freedom of speech ability but it does have limitations.   A scurrilous attack on a public figure with a tissue of lies can bring action in the courts, resulting in recovery action in the way of damages caused.  This is not possible when that same attack goes to air with the accuser remaining unidentified.

Just as the proprietors of Newspapers have an obligation to be responsible for the matter their writers and correspondents commit to print, there seems little reason why Facebook and Twitter should not have the same legal restraints on the truth that adheres to what they publish.

Facebook and Twitter are  popular with the public, but they are also mainly responsible for the incredible amount of " fake news "  circulating in the community.  What happened in Washington this week is an early warning of what is possible when public media escapes the moderating effect of the court system  !

Expensive " Legal Eagles " !

Early last century,  dissolving a marriage in the divorce court was a time consuming  scandal that put an end to many careers and ruined reputations.   The law at that time insisted that a " guilty party " be named - and shamed by being held responsible for the marriage breakup.

A swifter divorce could be gained by proving one of the applicants had been guilty of adultery, but otherwise the couple were required to serve years of separation before the judge would grant a legal divorce and this sort of misery was inflicted differently in every state.

Usually, the guilty party was punished by the distribution of the lesser share of assets from the marriage, and many churches refused to allow divorced people to participate in their services.  The divorce court was rife with carefully staged plots to show the innocent partner in a bad light.

 Than came the enlightenment of " no fault " divorce and the Family Court was created to justly and fairly end impossible marriages.  The welfare of any children was paramount and it was expected most divorces would need minimum legal representation before the court.

Unfortunately, this new Family court became the battleground for wealthy people to contest every minor issue in property settlements and rake over matter that has no bearing on what the court seeks to divide, and they are aided by some members of the legal fraternity who encourage this form of combat because it adds to their billing hours.

In one notable Sydney divorce, a woman seeking freedom from her husband who controlled  two hundred million in assets ended up with a six million dollar legal bill.  She had pawned her jewellery, sold paintings from the walls of her home and borrowed money from relatives to fund the four years this litigation took to wend its way through the Family court.

Both parties retained some of the best known and  highest charging family lawyers in Sydney and bitterly fought every move and counter move to gain an advantage.  It is fast becoming the practice  to steer such divorce action towards litigation funders because the lawyers get their money up front.

.   Often this results in the law firm agreeing to take the case for a fixed fee, on the understanding that thirty percent of the monetary divorce settlement will be claimed by the lawyer.  This is a form of payment shunned by many law firms.

The public is usually unaware of this practice.  On one occasion a wealthy man engaged a law firm that had been admonished by a judge for running up a large bill with futile applications and  irrelevant correspondence, although this solicitor's name was redacted from the judgement. In this case the client was charged double what was considered a fair fee and ordered to reduce it accordingly.

Unfortunately, despite the best intent of the Family court, divorce can still be both acrimonious - and expensive.  It will remain that way as long as the people involved are also seeking a moral victory and engage lawyers with profit in mind  !

Madness in America !

Amazing scenes in Washington, the capital of the United States of America, this week as  thousand of Republican party supporters heeded the thinly disguised encouragement of defeated US President Donald Trump and forced their way into the seat of government with a threat to the elected representatives meeting there.

Trump has never accepted the result of the November election in which Joe Biden defeated him in his bid for a second four year term. Without a shred of proof, Trump claims he won the vote and that the voting was rigged against him after those votes went into the ballot box.  This claim has been soundly rejected by every authority up to and including the American High court.

What probably sparked this crude attempt to form a new civil war was the news that two critical Senate seats in the state of Georgia had been won by Democrats and as a result Joe Biden would have a majority in his favour in both houses - and the White House. This has cleared the way for Biden to more easily take his reform policies into law.

By failing to concede when the election went against him, Trump is employing the tactics we see in the " Banana Republics " of Africa and South America.   Despots clinging to office with the help of armed supporters and employing repressive policies which cause their citizens to escape over the borders in search of a better life.

For the last three centuries America has been the beacon on the hill for  the oppressed of the world.  The place they seek to escape to in the hope of a better life, a form of prosperity from hard work and that promise to be able to seek the " pursuit of happiness ".  It was America that made them welcome when other countries closed their doors.

Trump presented himself as a " different " type of presidential candidate and that found favour with the " redneck " strata of citizens.  The hype and bluster convinced a majority to give him their vote and once in office he reverted to type - capricious and taking America out of associations that had long sought peace and stability in world affairs,.  He openly admired the ruthless exponents who reduced democracy in the  countries they ruled.

Now that Trump has openly tried to create a civil war in Americas it would be reasonable if he was forced from office and held accountable by the court system, but that will probably not happen. He will be eligible to stand for office again in four years time and he may use his skills to retain public attention, but - hopefully - the Trump era is over.

The Republican political party may eventually recover from the damage Trump did to it while in office but first America must come to terms with critical issues such as the colour question and the brutality of its police forces.

What happened in Washington this week was an abomination.   America must learn from that shameful experience and make concessions across the political aisle.  It is necessary for it to reengage with the world !

Bali Bombing Remembered !

 Later this week, 82 year old Abu Bakar Bashir will walk free from an Indonesian prison after serving ten years behind bars.  He was originally sentenced to fifteen years because of his involvement in setting up an illegal terrorist training camp in the Indonesian province of Aceh, but remissions have shortened that sentence.

Bashir is the spiritual leader of the al Qaeda linked Jemaah Islamiah  network of Muslim extremists responsible for the bombing of a nightclub in Bali that killed over two hundred people, including eighty eight Australians.   There was insufficient evidence to charge him with that crime or the Jakarta bombing of the J.W. Marriott hotel a year later that killed twelve people, despite his support for the al Qaeda war on the non Muslim world.

Bashir will be closely monitored on his release but he has lost none of his ardour for the killing of all non Muslims.  Osama bin laden was tracked down and killed and his movement evolved into Islamic State and at one stage President Joko Widodo considered releasing Bashir on health grounds when seeking election, but scrapped that plan when Bashir refused to pledge allegiance to Indonesian state ideology.

Jemaah Islamiah is an ongoing problem for Indonesia.  It is accused of plotting several big attacks in Indonesia and includes operatives trained in Afghanistan, Pakistan and the Philippines.  With Bashir  regaining his  freedom, there is the prospect of this  terrorist cell becoming responsible for a fresh round of atrocities.

That Bali bombing is still fresh in many Australian minds.  Apart from the eighty-eight Australians killed, many more suffered horrific injuries when a car load of explosives was detonated in close proximity to the nightclub and an adjacent bar.   Bali was an important holiday destination for people of this country and this terrorist attack killed many Indonesians who worked in the holiday industry.  Indonesia is predominantly a Muslim country, but those who live in Bali heavily follow the Hindu religion

This coronavirus has closed down the holiday trade, but it is likely that when vaccinations become widespread the airline industry and resorts such as Bali will again be welcoming guests from  Australia. The big question is whether or not the Indonesian security authorities have the ability to keep  Jemaah Islamiah under control and prevent further terrorist attacks,.

Bali is a place of great beauty, located a short airplane journey from the Australian mainland, but security is important and there are plenty of other nice beach fronts in the Pacific region that would welcome the benefits that come from being a tourist destination.

Bashir's freedom will revive memories of that bombing back in 2002 and whether to visit or seek someplace new will be a big decision in many Australian minds.  Opportunity knocks for the money market to develop a safer alternative to Bali.

Keeping the Lights On !

 Here we are, one third of the way through summer and Sydney is yet to experience one of those sweltering hot day and nights when the temperature hovers about forty degrees,.  In fact we have been having a wet, cool summer and many people wonder how the electricity system will cope if - and when - the traditional summer chooses to arrive.

Over the next twenty years, sixty percent of our coal fired generating capacity is set for closure. There is an essential urgency in reforming the grid to put in place the right regulations to stop the price blowing our and power supply failure.  If we keep kicking this further down the road, it is going to cost us more for electricity in the future.

What is alarming is the discrepancy between the generators estimate of how renewables will shoulder the load and the picture projected by the Federal government.  The operators think that their " step change " policy will result in renewables increasing from 37 percent of the energy mix in 2020 to 63% by 2030,  rising to 94 % by 2040.

The government projection, published last November, estimates that renewables will achieve 55 % of the power mix by 2030.   Obviously, they can not both be right and that gap might leave parts of Sydney in the dark.

One example of the challenge from renewables is the world leading installation of  rooftop solar which generates so much power that demand from the grid in major cities is wiped out during the day, creating  a headache for operators managing the basic outload from the old coal and gas generating plants.  It is evident that sometimes we are getting more than we need from renewables.

The basic plan in place to correct this imbalance was supposed to be Snowy Hydro, where excess power from renewables generated during the day was used to pump water back to the higher lakes, so that it could be used to create hydro power at night when the sun is not shining and those solar renewables are not contributing to the grid.

Of courser, that plan to rely on renewables leaves us at the mercy of unusual weather events which can cause fluctuations in the amount of wind and solar available in the middle of the day.  We should remember last year's bushfire summer when the air above Sydney was choked with smoke for days that extended into weeks.  A volcano exploding on an island to our north could disperse an ash cloud over Australia that could deliver a similar effect.

It is inevitable that those old coal fired power generators will be phased out and with them will go our ability to guarantee a reliable base load.  Taking action now is critical in ensuring we will minimize disruptions and avoid unintended consequences.

Prices are forecast to fall over the next three years as the lower cost of gas and renewables  drives a $30 fall in energy bills for the average NSW household.

The Pool Safety Issue !

 Deaths from car crashes have made a welcome retreat back to the days when we mostly drove second hand cars.  Each generation of new models is a safety improvement on the last and survival rates in a crash are ever improving.  To some extent, this improved death toll can be attributed to the coronavirus.

Due to the compulsory lockdown, we are driving less and fewer cars on the road pays a safety dividend.  It seems that vaccines will eventually restore car numbers but the self driving car will take human fingers off the steering wheel.

Unfortunately, the statistics on beach and river drownings is on the increase.  We are relatively safe on popular beaches patrolled by the surf lifesaving movement as long as we swim between the flags, but the privacy lure of remote and unpatrolled beaches has great appeal to many and inland residents head to the local river for a swim when the weather turns hot.

Young men feature heavily in these death statistics, and often because alcohol is involved in their drownings.  They tend to over estimate their ability in the water and when someone experiences a difficulty they make an unwise rescue attempt that is far beyond their ability.   A child in trouble will usually bring a number of adults rushing to give aid.

We are relatively safe when we attend a beach patrolled by lifesavers and elect to swim between the flags. The lifesaver movement now uses drones to extends their coverage and these clever " eyes in the sky " are used to detect sharks swimming inshore and potentially menacing swimmers.

Perhaps an ever bigger problem is the rapid expansion of home swimming pools.  We have experienced a traumatic spate of child drownings and legislation has been enacted to insist that these pools be protected by both safety fencing and self closing gates.  Unfortunately, in some cases this is being ignored.

One of the problems is the availability of above ground pools which come in kit form and which owners usually erect themselves.   They are relatively cheap and many people fail to apply for council approval for their presence, and consequently they undergo no council safety inspection.

Owners are legally responsible if a child from next door or down the road wanders onto their property and gains access to the pool.  A coroners inquest may be scathing if this leads to a drowning and there are plans for councils to use drones to overview their suburbs to detect pools that have not been installed following proper procedure.

Water safety saves lives and having an unsafe pool can lead to prosecution.  There are probably untold numbers of unregistered pools in various states of disrepair scattered across Australia and councils are coming under pressure to locate and bring them under control.

We are just one third of the way into this summer and new above ground pools are a hot seller in the discount industry.  New owners would be advised to make sure they have council approval and the pool meets the legal safety requirements.

Failure to do so might lead to a manslaughter charge if it results in the death of a child !

The issue of " Consent " !

 Rape is probably the most unreported crime on our statute books, and the much reported but indecisive trial of two leading football, players is likely to deter many more women from lodging an official complaint.

Jarryd Haynes and Jack de Belin have faced a judge and jury in separate rape trials and in both cases the jury has been unable to reach a verdict.   Both juries were discharged and the parties involved face the cost and the publicity of these crimes  again being paraded in the public arena.  They will be tried again in front of new juries.

The statistics are not encouraging.  In 2019 the police recorded 4444 cases of alleged rape involving adult members of the public and thirty percent were taken to court for a decision within six months.  Data from the courts reveals that of the 1752 defendants charged with sexual assault between  July 2019 and June 2020, just 996 were convicted.

The conviction rate for rape cases stands at 56.8 percent and this compares with 75% for manslaughter cases and 80 % for drug dealing.  The odds against vindication are stacked unevenly against women who seek redress for rape and many decide not to have their humiliation dissected before court reporters and widely published in the national press.

The conviction rate improves sharply when the alleged rape is a brutal encounter between complete strangers and was clearly unprovoked,  The outcome is not so clear when it involves a couple who know each other and the jury hears very different versions of what happened from each of the parties involved.  Sex is a very private matter and there are usually no witnesses to vindicate the evidence given.

Often the decision revolves around the issue of consent.  The court hears a tittilating account of foreplay and the issue of consent or otherwise is far from clear.  That is often the issue that divides juries and the main reason why rape cases fail to reach a conclusive verdict. The various state jurisdictions have struggled to formulate a common legal definition of " consent " - and failed miserably.

To complicate matters, sex has evolved from the morals that existed a century ago to where it is becoming the usual outcome in most relationships.  Rape is a serious crime that is punished with a heavy penalty and it is becoming difficult to select a jury that does not contain a mix of people with very different  views on what sort of consent is applicable.

In the absence of a clearly defined consent definition to guide juries we will continue to have these cases return for further hearings and many women will decide not to take their complaint into a court of law.  In the case of rape our law system is clearly not dispensing justice according to the statue with a scale of balance in her hand that stands above each court house.

The next Legal Fight !

It is likely the start of vaccinations in Australia to combat the coronavirus pandemic will get under way in March and the big question awaiting answer in the legal system is whether employers have the right to demand employees get the jab ?

A lot will depend on how the union movement reacts on the " worker's rights " issue and that could eventually be decided in the High Court, but there is the expectation there will be some resistance to vaccination for a variety of reasons.

No doubt the hard core opposed to vaccinations that prevent deadly childhood diseases will claim this vaccine transmits or causes some other condition. Such claims gain credibility despite being refuted by responsible medical authorities and this has resulted in the return of child deaths from diseases long thought to have been banished from this country.

Unfortunately,  there is bound to be a reaction to what is an entirely new drug in some citizens with a variety of allergies. Fortunately, this vaccine will be in use in many overseas countries for several months before the start of vaccination in Australia and we will gain the knowledge of any adverse effects and what needs to be done to prevent them.

These vaccinations have not had the length of trials usually required of any new medication because of the lethal nature of this pandemic. With deaths reported in the hundreds of thousands in some countries the trials were speeded up in the hope of saving lives.  That will create a doubt in some minds.

Hopefully, most people will accept these free vaccinations when they become available and we will quickly gain " herd immunity " against this coronavirus which will enable our economy to recover.  We are fast accumulating a massive deficit debt as money is outlaid to relieve people who have been stood down from their jobs and that can not continue indefinitely.

The need for vaccination can be argued endlessly, but obviously workers who are not vaccinated pose a danger of infecting others working in close proximity and their employer could be held responsible for that omission. It is likely that those working with children and in aged care will be required as a condition of employment to have an up to date vaccination record.

The obligation to have a vaccination will not be clear until a law is determined by the Australian parliament and withstood a challenge in the Australian legal system.  That is the way the law works in Australia.   What the parliament decides is then assessed in the law courts to determine if it is in accord with the provisions of the Australian Constitution.

It is essential that the law covering vaccination be clarified without delay.  The sooner is emerges from political crossfire and becomes legislation that is tested in the courts the quicker our economy will recover.  It really is a " life or death " decision.

The " Fake News " Factor !

It is very evident that the regional newspapers that have served Australia so well are in decline.  The cost of running a regional news room is not balanced by the cost of printing and distributing the resulting newspaper and the advertising world no longer relies on newsprint to get its message across.

Even the big city newspapers now consist of full page advertising for the discounters and much of this relies on incentives to achieve sales.  This either takes the form of a long, repayment holiday, or  a " Gift card "  offer when you achieve a high spending level.

We are urged by the government to " spend our way out of this recession " and that evil word - " Inflation " has been moved onto the back burner.  It is a sign of the times that firms offering " payday loans " have shot up the leaders board and now compete on even terms with big mining companies and manufacturers.

The newspaper industry despairs that fewer households buy a daily paper and as a result the news cycle has evolved into what people say on Facebook.  This is supplemented by the television news which consists of " interest grabs " without the background content to flesh out the entire story.

Now even the television news industry is in decline.   The government forced the three main channels to serve regional Australia with local subsidiaries competing with the ABC and SBS and now they are shedding those all important news rooms.   The cost of gathering and presenting local news is not balanced by advertising volume and this service is being reduced.

This will leave us vulnerable to overseas interests with ill will towards Australia.  This becomes evident prior to an election when " scare " stories are echoed from unknown sources orchestrated from overseas. Nomatter how bizarre the story, there are some people who believe what they hear and add their own version to the rumour mill.

We are well served by investigative journalists who encourage whistle blowers to shed light on the corruption that infiltrates both government and private industry.  Often this causes intense embarrassment to government ministers and captains of industry and strident efforts are made to close down the investigation.

Sometimes this involves police raids to seize documentation and disclose the identity of the whistle blower and often the law is opaque on how it is being applied. It is not unusual for those writing a breaking story to be forced to live overseas, out of reach of the offended parties and the fury they generate.

Regional newspaper and television channels are the best defence against fake news and its purveyors. Unfortunately, the tide of commerce is running against them, but with public support they usually manage to provide a basic news service which does much to defuse the damage wrought by vested interests feeding into Facebook.

It is in the public interest that they survive  !

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This 2021 Challenge !

 A new year brings with it change and we hope that 2021 is a lot different from the year that is dearly departed.  It will be a year when vaccinations will be in order and - hopefully - this coronavirus will fade into the rear vision mirror.

It will be a long time before overseas airline travel returns to the frequency - and the seat prices - that enticed us to visit distant countries.  The experience of many Australians who found themselves stuck overseas when border closures came into effect will linger in the memory.

It is highly likely that New Zealand will become the most favoured destination.  Close across the Tasman sea and with a common language that will be a safer option until we get our nerve back to visit exotic cultures.

There will also be a degree of concern when the cruise ships again visit our shores.   It was a harrowing experience for passengers confined to their cabins as the ships visited port after port, only to be refused clearance to dock.

For that reason, many people will prefer a holiday in Australia and this country has much to offer. We have a wide climate range and an entire continent to explore.  That is an opportunity that the advertising industry will not be slow to exploit.

2020 also opened a vista of new job opportunities.  The global trade experience that saw much of our manufacturing migrate overseas delivered a lesson.  Low income countries like China eventually become greedy and dogmatic and seek to exploit their advantage.  The age of robotics and AI restores the balance and there  is now no reason why we can not compete with a return of manufacturing here.

Australia adopted a mind set that saw itself as the raw product supplier to the world.   We became a mining country and our biggest exports were coal and iron ore, which replaced our original export of wool.  We face an evolving world where the future is food production and that will become our export of the future.

That old programme of individual states setting their own education policies needs to change.  We need a national education curriculum to ensure that a common standard applies in all parts of Australia.  Those old days of finishing school and having a job for life are gone forever.  We will become accustomed to constant job training in the future so our skills keep pace with job evolution in an ever changing world.

It is inevitable that our population numbers will keep rising.  An Australian population of a hundred million is not out of the question, and this " home market " will expand the opportunity for manufacturing to be locally sourced.  We will need to disperse that large population more widely to avoid depending on a small number of mega cities.

2021 is the start of a new age with a lot of growth potential.  To take us where the future beckons, we will need to keep an open mind and seize the opportunities offering.

The " Tunnelling " Solution !

At long last that dangerous stretch of road connecting North Wollongong and Stanwell Park is getting a serious evaluation with the view of an upgrade.   Lawrence Hargreave Drive is virtually a single lane each way through a densely populated combination of seaside suburbs, sandwiched between the towering escarpment and the sea.

It is notorious for long delays even in off peak conditions and should a sudden storm eventuate on a sunny weekend the traffic jam can take hours to clear.  In such circumstances, ambulances and fire trucks face an impossible situation responding to calls.

Numerous seaside villages from the early settlement of the coast have joined up to make a continuous  suburb of the narrow land frontage on either side of this road, and between that and the escarpment it is thickly wooded.   The potential for a raging bushfire is evident every summer and with the right wind behind it this could eventuate into a tragedy.

We were extremely lucky it did not burn in the disastrous summer of last year and the last time the escarpment had a fire season was 1968.  It is long overdue and our luck will not hold indefinitely. But exactly what form of relief that can be applied is difficult to imagine.

Lawrence Hargreave drive originated in the horse and cart days. It twists and turns its way of necessity and follows the contour of the land and substantial widening will be impossible.  Virtually every space fronting it now contains a house, and in this day and age each of those homes has at least one car.

Unfortunately, accessing Wollongong and the south coast is by way of the dangerous descent of either Mount Ousley or Bulli Pass and many people use Lawrence Hargreave drive as an alternative.  We will only reduce the heavy load on this road when we can offer a faster and easier way to avoid the obstacle of the escarpment.

The answer to that problem is obvious.  Road and rail tunnels through the escarpment to link north Wollongong with Maddens plains.  We have the divided F6 highway linking Sydney with Bulli Tops and taking it underground to avoid a slow grinds down the escarpment is the logical sequence.

Giant boring machines are creating tunnels that provide a better highway system in Sydney and when this is complete they should be tasked with freeing up access to the south coast.  Just eighty kilometres separates Wollongong from Sydney and both the road and rail journey is unusually long because of the time taken to twist and turn over the escarpment.  A journey under the escarpment would remove that hazard as the most economical alternative.

The only real alternative to Lawrence Hargreave drive will be to close it to through traffic.  If it is restricted to local traffic movement it will barely cope but that would be a big improvement on the situation that presently exists.

That tunnelling answer seems the only solution  and its needs implementation while the machines are readily available.