The Hardest Decision !

The Reserve Bank of Australia is mulling over it's responsibility to guard the citizens of this country against what is shaping up as an unprecedented housing price bubble.  Every weekend sees home prices rising to new heights and auction clearances are nothing short of a bidding frenzy.

Half a century ago the loan formulae for new home buyers was fairly strict.  The lending authorities  required buyers to have at least a ten percent deposit and the monthly loan repayments should not exceed a third of that persons income, and the preferred loan length was twenty years.

Economists at the bank are aghast that the deposit gap is ever narrowing and the loan length ever increasing - and even with interest rates at a historic low - many people are committing an unsustainable portion of their income to servicing their home loan.

One of the options being considered by the Reserve bank is to impose a new requirement for lowering the deposit ratio to under 90% of the loan and requiring the borrower to prove that a rate rise of between 3 and 4 % would be sustainable within their earning capacity.   They could also impose new capital holding rules on the banks to force them to gear the cash they must retain to a direct link with their home loan portfolios.   This would sharply curtail the banks ability to make home loans more widely available.

This would certainly slam the door shut on most moderate income home loan applicants - and would probably pop that price bubble.   It could in fact send the momentum into reverse and cause a dramatic - and dangerous - fall in house prices, with disastrous repercussions for the Australian economy.  People who have recently entered the home market with a minimum deposit and unsustainable repayments could find themselves with a loan that far exceeds the new value of their home holding - as happened in the 2008 recession.

It could also throw the entire Australian economy into a tailspin.   The same criteria that existed before 2008 is evident in many people's minds.  There is an expectation that house prices will continue to rise and therefore even a short holding will result in a profit.   It is the old game of "Musical Chairs " -  and if the Reserve bank implements these proposed changes - it will be the moment that the music stops !

The Reserve bank is wrestling with a moral responsibility.  It is inevitable that interest rates will not remain at their present low level and when they rise a lot of people will be in dire financial trouble. Even a hint of bank foreclosures will spook the market and see home prices tumbling - and people slam their wallets shut and stop spending.  That is precisely the situation that sparks off a recession - and that can quickly mushroom through the entire economy.

On the other hand, to let the present situation remain unchecked is to knowingly place decent people in jeopardy by allowing banks to fund unsustainable home purchases.  It is the duty of the Reserve bank to guard against such risks, but in doing so it could trigger an even greater calamity if it saps public confidence by implementing harsh measures.

This public warning is probably intended to put a shot across the bows of the banks and warn them to modify their deposit and repayment ratios to a more sustainable level.   A word in the ears of those at high level in the banks may see a tightening of the criteria, but at a level which simply slows home price increases and lowers a frenetic market to a more reasonable tempo.

The Reserve bank has draconian powers at it's disposal.   It seems to be choosing the " softly  Softly " approach to ease an overheated housing market back to a sustainable level, without creating what could be termed  " unintended consequences " !

Not so Sweet !

Sugar has been getting a bad rap from the health people.  It seems to be the main contributor in the chain of events that lead people to become obese - and then go on to develop diabetes.  It is an addictive substance and it made fortunes when earlier explorers found the islands of the Caribbean and the sugar cane plant, and introduced slave labour to bring this new luxury to the dinner tables of Europe.

Many people have reduced their use of sugar and replaced it with artificial sweeteners, but  it is hard to measure because it is present in much of the food we consume.   When  "fat "became the nutritional enemy, food manufacturers quickly replaced fat but found their product lacked "taste " - and quickly restored that balance by increasing the sugar content.   A can of fizzy drink usually contains the daily sugar amount a healthy adult should consume.

Now it seems that the medical world is having second thoughts about the wisdom of using artificial sweeteners - and there have been suggestions that they cause some people to actually gain weight. Aspartane - as the basic chemical is called - is not directly bad for people but it can have a wide spectrum of differing reactions with the zillions of tiny microbes that live in people's guts, and this is opening up a very interesting new field of medical science.

It was a long held theory that human gut microbes would be consistent across the human spectrum, and that is proving to be false.    What we eat and drink and the conditions in which we live seem to make the contents of our intestines very much a microbial mix that is as much a personal identification as our DNA or fingerprints.   It is quite possible that if we have the wrong mix the reaction to Saccharin can increase rather than reduce our weight.

Just as the Glucose or Sucrose that we know as sugar causes the human body to extract energy and is spread across the wide food chain, Aspartane is similarly represented in everything from tooth paste to hiding the unpleasant taste of pain killing medicine.   It is virtually impossible to banish either sweetener from a person's diet.

Experiments with mice have shown that rebalancing the microbes in the human gut can restore the conditions that cause the lack of some microbes to cause us unpleasant reactions.  It seems that gaining an understanding of what microbes should ideally be present in the human gut is fast becoming a new branch of medical science.    Unpleasant as it sounds, it has been found that transferring faecal matter from a healthy gut to one lacking balance quickly results in the missing microbes recolonising the new host - and restoring gut equilibrium.

This seems more than just an interesting theory.  There must be very few people who have not from time to time developed some ailment that has resulted in them being prescribed an antibiotic.   The aim of this substance is to kill the specific bug that is causing ill health - but at the same time it also decimates the entire structure of microbes - both good and bad - that live in our gut.

That presents an entirely rational explanation of why - in the aftermath of having treated some ailment with an antibiotic - we find that there is a new and puzzling change to our health that was not present previously.   Having wiped out the entire gut spectrum in our body we have undergone a new process of restoration and the prevailing conditions have delivered an entirely new mix.   Our body is learning to live with a new microbe family - with consequent change.

Hopefully, the future may see more of a medical focus on evaluating just what microbe mix is present in each human, and creating the optimum balance to deliver good health.   In the interim, the choice between sugar or artificial sweeteners - seems to be in the lap of the Gods !

Refugees ? Now the Aftermath !

The government has succeeded in stopping the boats arising from Kevin Rudd and Julia Gillard's disastrous meddling with John Howard's successful immigration containment, and now it is time to sort out those waiting on our shores in limbo.  It has been decided to issue Temporary Protection Visas ( TPV's ) to the 30,000 who have been waiting to have their immigration status decided and this seems to be at least the first step in a decision to allow them permanent  residency.

A different fate awaits those who defied the warning that arriving by boat will result in them never being allowed to permanently settle in Australia - and saw them moved offshore to detention camps on Nauru and Manus Island.  A deal has been struck with Cambodia and we will pay the Cambodian government $ 40 million to settle these people and accept them as permanent residents. Predictably, there are howls of rage from the political left and the charge that Cambodia is a third world country totally unfit to integrate those that this country has rejected.

The present turmoil in the Middle East is being cited to garner sympathy for refugees.  Television pictures showing women and children scrambling over the border into Turkey in fear of being raped or beheaded by a fanatical army of religious zealots is harrowing, but there is a very big difference.  These refugees want nothing more than the fighting to stop to allow them to return to their home country.  They have left behind their homes and way of earning a living and this is a temporary displacement - to save lives.

The "Boat People " had a very different objective.  They were not scrambling over Australia's border in dire fear for their lives.   They probably had fled their original country in fear, but they had refused to register and accept political asylum in the first country they entered, as is the rule imposed by the United Nations.  They travelled through various countries in their stated aim to "force themselves on Australia " and along the way they seemed to find extraordinary sums of money to pay "People Smugglers "to bring them from Indonesia or Malaysia - to Christmas island.

Now their journey is coming full circle.  Cambodia can not deliver the rich life they expected here, but it offers safety.  It is also a developing country and industrious new arrivals can ride the tide of progress that is sweeping through Asia - or move on and develop new aspirations.  For them, the door to Australia is firmly closed.

Hopefully, once the mess of people arriving unannounced in leaky boats is cleaned up the doorway for legal immigration to this country will revert to the former orderly flow.  We are a nation of immigrants - right from that time in 1788 when the first settlers came ashore in Sydney Cove.  We have still to make lasting peace with this country's Indigenous inhabitants but old wrongs are being righted and all seem assured of a prosperous future.

We need - and we accept a steady flow of new immigrants to this country and a badly stressed world has many waiting.   The queues are long, but it is essential that new arrivals come in the numbers we can assimilate and we are fortunate that we do not share a common border - as is the case in many other parts of the world.  It is within our capacity to control our borders - as we are now showing the world.

Our good wishes go with those destined to become citizens of Cambodia and hope that they achieve a happy and successful life.  Their arrival here was simply a matter of "unfortunate timing "!     They were the " Bunnies "left standing in the game of "Musical Chairs " - when the music stopped !

Dividing Health Costs !

Australia is termed a "rich country "and that has drawbacks.   Each year 630 Australian  citizens die from a disease known as Hepatitus C and now a new miracle drug has been discovered that not only cures this disease but prevents it infecting others.   The problem is that it is expensive - and a full course of "Solvadi "costs $ 84,000.

Medical statistics reveal that there are 230,000 people in this country suffering from Hepatitus C - and about a third of them are on the waiting list for a liver transplant.  If Solvadi gained listing on the PBS it would free up the liver donor flow and save a lot of people suffering other liver diseases, but it would impose at least a two billion hit on the national health bill - and that has been ruled out for the immediate future.

So - we have a "Catch 22 "situation.   The vast number of middle class Australians would certainly be able to raise $ 84,000 if that was the price of saving their life.   That is not an insurmountable figure for a person with some home equity, superannuation and probably a reasonable amount of savings, but it is way out of reach for the bottom ten percent - who are totally reliant on the PBS for their health care.

In recent times," big pharmacy " on the world scene has adopted a humanitarian approach and licensed the production of generic versions of their products under patent in the rich world to third world countries.   Countries like India and Fiji are getting a heavily discounted version to treat the diseases that are otherwise a death sentence to their citizens because of lack of money.

There is every chance that dealing with Hepatitus C will become a new chapter of "medical tourism " and join a plethora of third world medical centres that offer a combined "holiday/cure " in modern facilities that are way beyond the financial reach of their own citizens.   Sadly, such options are also an impossible dream to the lower order of Australian society - in which the next meal depends on whatever small change remains in their pocket.

Australian health planners face a conundrum.   If they list Solvadi on the PBS it will blow out the health budget because the vast majority of Australian Hepatitus C sufferers will rush for a cure in Australian hospitals, but if it remains unlisted the wealthy will turn to overseas suppliers - and the poor in this country will remain untreated.

Unfortunately, this also has a knock-on effect.   The companies that develop new disease fighting drugs do so at great expense and seek to recover their development costs.   When the sales level to a rich country starts to fall because it's citizens are travelling to a third world country for treatment, the immediate response is to lower the quantities subjected to generic discounts.   The consequences are not hard to predict.      Third world countries are making more money treating foreign clients than dealing with their own citizens, and hence what supplies remain are withdrawn from the treatment of poor locals.

It's a vicious circle, and as scarcity drives up prices in overseas medical clinics, so pressure grows in Australia to include these drugs on the PBS - and the losers are always those denizens who lack the resources to access modern medicines !

A Brave New World !

Planning Minister Pru Goward is being savaged for considering a law change to allow new apartment buildings without the mandatory excavated car park to accommodate residents cars.  At the same time, the minimum floor space for studio apartments is likely to drop to just 35 square metres, packing more people into city tower blocks.

This innovation would be restricted to just twenty-two Sydney council areas and all would be closely adjacent to public transport hubs.  That huge excavation for car parking is a big cost item in building construction and the change would mean a price drop of anywhere between $ 50,000 and $ 70, 000 for each apartment, opening a price gap for first home buyers.

Welcome to a brave new world where we would learn to do without the freedom of owning - and parking - a personal car.  There is the hope that an improved public transport system could lure city residents to travel on the bus and train network and for those with more complicated travel needs perhaps some sort of communal car pooling might be the answer.  If the age of electric cars does arrive, perhaps a call on a Smartphone would see a tiny electric transport delivered to take care of transport needs.

There is also pressure to adopt a Melbourne parking initiative that could see Sydney go from four wheels - to just two.   Melbourne allows scooters and motorbikes to park freely on footpaths, but doing this in Sydney attracts a hefty fine.  Some seem to think that Sydney's network of bike lanes - mostly barely used - could become the venue for the in-line parking of motorbikes and scooters without greatly inhibiting the passage of cycle traffic.

The dreamers think up Utopian ideas for future city living.  Some envisage a city centre from which cars are banned.  Those living in the inner city and owning a car would garage it in a parking building a short train ride away in an industrial suburb.   At days end, they would return it to this site and again ride public transport to their city apartment.

Having a vision - and making it work - are two very different things.  There is a danger if apartment buildings that lack car parking do go ahead that we are simply shifting the problem to somewhere else.  We see this daily in our older inner city areas.   The daily shuffle to keep parked cars moving to avoid fines for overstaying limits and streets packed with cars overnight because the old terrace housing lacked space for car parking.   As some would say  - welcome to a new third world country !

Of course, there is a solution that has been tried in some vastly authoritarian countries.  You are not permitted to register a vehicle unless you can prove to the authorities that you have a legal and approved parking location.  It would be a brave - or perhaps foolish - government to implement that restriction here.

It all seems to boil down to that old "Chicken and the egg "routine - which came first ?    We are stuck with the car - until we either manage a public transport system that seamlessly moves people to where they want to go - or private transport develops to the point that car pooling for individual use becomes a practical idea.

Until then, this proposed law change is a step into the unknown !

Government responsibilities ?

Two statements this week illustrate the withdrawal of two levels of government from essential services that used to be in government hands. Industry Minister Ian MacFarlane ruled out nuclear power generation in Australia, despite the nuclear option being favoured by fifty percent of the public in opinion polls.

The generation of electrical power, it's distribution to the public - and the price charged used to be a responsibility of each state government.  The bigger states have seen fit to "privatise "electricity and now it is in the hands of companies who have a responsibility to deliver dividends to their shareholders - because their money was exchanged to fill government coffers and make electricity a mere commodity for profitable trade.

The other statement came from James Baulderstone, the head of Santos and he warned that the people of New South Wales can look forward to cold showers and gas shortages if the state government does not get cracking and approve fast tracking the Narrabri coal seam gas operation.  This has the potential to provide fifty percent of this states gas needs.

Australia is not short of natural gas.   In fact, we are one of the world's biggest exporters of gas - and there are indications that world demand will continue to increase exponentially - dragging the price ever higher.   Domestic gas prices have hiked in recent time because the gas we use in this state has to compete with overseas demand.

It would be naive to expect that if this Narrabri gas field was successfully tapped the gas would be delivered to this state's homes below the price that can be obtained on the world market.   It will cost Santos big money to bring in a new gas field and Santos is a commercial company with dividend hungry shareholders.   We seem destined to pay commercial rates for both electricity and gas - because both industries are no longer government entities.

In the distant past, household gas was only available in cities and usually a joint operation between local councils and private enterprise.   It was generated by burning coal to fill huge "gasometers "and the piping network was limited.  The discovery of oil in Australia and natural gas runoff brought cheap gas to the Australian public long before the present overseas demand kicked in inflate the price structure.

It's too late to lock the stable door - because the horse has bolted !  Gas and electricity are now subject to the pressures of the marketplace and despite assurances that governments at both levels are doing all they can to keep price hikes in check, we are faced with a very unpleasant reality.  We no longer own and control these essentials to modern living.

It would take an immense policy change to roll back control of power and gas.   Probably the only option would be for a joint state and Commonwealth corporation to create a network of nuclear power stations and tap this country's gas fields. We would gain the benefit of reduced pollution and a drop in C02 emissions, but such a plan would also fly in the face of the notion that private enterprise does things cheaper than government instrumentality's.   It would probably end up with these two vital commodities being supplied below cost - and become a burden on the Treasury.

It seems that we are stuck with electricity and gas prices being governed by the need for their new owners to produce dividends !

Death - and Taxes !

That hoary old witticism that the only certainty in life - is "Death and Taxes " -  certainly applies to the family car.    It's taxed to death by both the State and Federal government and has been a prize milking cow every time the Treasuries have a desperate new need for cash.

The tax take is endless.  Driving licenses.  Registration.   Third party Insurance.  Petrol tax.  Speeding fines.   Road tolls.  And of course we also have the GST as an added measure to skim off a further ten percent - as a tax on a tax,

Now a review committee has come up with a new plan to spread the tax load.  It is suggested that it would be "fairer "if all these taxes were "reduced "and replaced with a "distance tax "on all the state's roads.   The rate of tax would be geared to the degree of congestion, the time of day and the type and size of the vehicle being driven.  This would provide an incentive for drivers to be selective about the route taken and to avoid peaks in favour of lower taxed times of the day and night.

Presumably, every car would need to be fitted with a toll transponder and roads would measure the traffic flow with a reader to tick up the distance each car travels each month and calculate the bill by a measure of distance x road rate x time factor.    According to this suggestion, a little old lady who drives to the shopping centre once a week would pay almost nothing, while a heavy road user would be slugged for the damage his or her car is doing to the road system and the congestion it is causing.

The proposers are careful to claim that this would not be an increased tax.   It would merely displace parts of the old tax system in favour of a tax that measures actual car use against the static fees presently imposed on all vehicles, irrespective of how and when they are used.

It seems that taxpayers are cynical when it comes to changes to the tax system - and for that they have good reason.  Income tax was first imposed by Julius Caesar back in the time of the Roman empire, but it was short lived because the citizens devised countless strategies  to avoid paying.   It reappeared in 1799 in Britain as a "temporary tax"  - at the rate of two pennies in each pound earned - to help pay for arms and equipment used in the French revolutionary war.  Many of the myriad taxes that make life difficult are similar "temporary "taxes imposed during the first and second world wars - that gained permanency because governments are addicted to money.

Whatever system applies to the taxing of transport and the road system we can be sure that the level collected will not decrease - and there is every assumption that the tax take will need to increase to provide the road network that our growing population urgently needs.   There are obvious anomalies in introducing a distance based road tax regime, not the least of which is the cost of setting up the recording of every vehicles travel on every highway, road and street in the country.

As things stand, the private owner of the family car clearly subsidizes the commercial cost of the business fleets that keep goods in our shops and supermarkets.  Once the tax take reverts to distance travelled we will see that reflected in the price increase of goods - and consequently any savings will be nullified.

Redistributing the tax load seems to be a variation of the three shells and a pea trick.   What you expect - and what you get - invariable turn out to be very different to your expectations.   This is probably a very good theoretical idea - but don't expect the final bill for having and using a car to be any lower !

What a mess !

There is an eighty million dollar liability claim about to come home to roost in Australia - and it leaves a lot of questions to be answered.  How did it happen  ?   And what can be done to ensure it doesn't happen again ?

Many Australian importing firms go to China to seek competitively priced goods to bring to this country and sell for a profit.   Infinity Cable Company was one of them and very successfully imported electrical cable which was snapped up by several hardware chains.  At the time, it was claimed that this cable met the appropriate Australian standards.

Unfortunately, the insulation on this cable fell far short of Australian requirements. Our standard requires cable to have a working life of at least forty years. The defective insulation in Infinity cable means that from as early as 2016 it can become brittle and fail, resulting in possible electrical fires or electrocution.   It is subject to a product recall and it has been used in an estimated 40,000 Australian homes.

One of the resellers was Woolworths "Masters "hardware chain and Infinity was also sold by Thrifty Link and Home Timber and Hardware, accounting for about 85% of the cable sold in Australia, the rest was sold by electrical wholesalers.  The customers were a wide spread and included "Tradie "electricians and the vast DIY market.

It is essential that where this cable has been installed it is subject to prompt action to have it removed and replaced - and the big question is who pays the bill for that work to be done.  It looks like becoming a "lawyer's picnic " with claims flying in all directions.  Obviously, compensation is beyond the ability of the small importing firm, but the hardware chains are vulnerable, as are the electricians who used it in good faith.

Unfortunately, past history indicates that a mere fraction of product recalls result in customer reaction.   There is a good chance that most of this faulty cable will not be rectified, and as a result we can expect both house fires and danger to people coming in contact with the wiring in the years ahead.

This should be a wakeup call to the people tasked with inspecting incoming goods that flow through Australian Customs.   What certainty is required that goods subjected to a need to meet Australian standards - meet those requirements ?    Do we accept a declaration from a Chinese government source that tests have been made and our standards met ?    Do we require tests by an Australian authority to vindicate those standards ?   What rules apply ?   And what oversight is automatically triggered when legal standards apply ?

Car makers wishing to sell their product here are required to supply models for crash testing and these are then awarded a safety star standard.   The vast majority of imports are considered harmless, but obviously there are some materials that must achieve an adequate safety level and these should require a more thorough authentication as a matter of course.   It is now an inescapable fact that four thousand km of defective electrical cable passed through customs with this defect undetected.

The only benefit of disasters of this magnitude - is the hope that it will bring remedial action to prevent it happening again !

Cat and Mouse game !

Many people are bemused at the outcome of last weeks dramatic swoop on Sydney Jihadists said to be plotting a beheading in the heart of the city.   Police and the Security services were quite open about the number of homes raided and the suburbs involved - and the number of arrests made.   Days later all have been released without charge - except one man.

In recent times we have had law changes that allow suspects to be held for varying lengths of time without charges being laid.  This runs contrary to the expectation that a person arrested will be promptly put before a bail court and supplied with legal representation to prepare a defence.  It seems that there is a vast chasm between criminal law - and what is essentially heading towards an undeclared act of warfare by soldiers who decline to wear uniforms.

Our Security people claim that the immediacy of the threat forced them to take premature action and no doubt the element of surprise may have breached the Jihadist's security.  An unexpected raid before dawn on multiple suspects could be expected to deliver a trove of information that allows investigators to "join the dots " and make  "connections "  that will now be vigorously followed up.

There is a very good reason for not laying charges.   Australian law allows a charged person to secure the services of a legal representative of their choice and to hold confidential interviews with that person.  The prosecution is also required to provide the defence with a brief of the evidence that will be presented in court, hence in the matters of Jihad - valuable security information forewarns the Jihadists of how they have been penetrated and allows them to take remedial action.

By not laying charges, our Security people have left the Jihadists guessing.  They must be wondering if any of those raided have been careless with security. Many of their leaders are already in the prison system and much of the planning is being done behind bars and directed by way of smuggled mobile phones and the usual network of rewards for "favours ". The Americans sealed off captured terrorists behind the walls of their prison at Guantanamo Bay and severed all connections with the outside world.   That is not an option available here in Australia.

Legal representation appears to be the Achilles heel  of thwarting a terrorist network.  Not only may lawyers be sympathetic to their client's aims, the evidence explained in the prosecutions brief to the defence will probably be handled by numerous researchers, paralegals and typists in the course of constructing a defence argument - and thus security can not be guaranteed.

There is a danger that the legal system's rigid checks and balances may be rejected by some elements frustrated with their impediment to successfully containing what is seen as a subversive war.  In many parts of the world - and Argentina, Peru. Columbia and Mexico come to mind  - law and order was replaced with a "dirty war " mentality that resulted in "disappearances " and the installation of a "police state ".

Unfortunately, when religion is the crux of the dispute, all forms of moderation seem to fall by the wayside !

The Scots Decide !

The referendum to decide the fate of Scotland has delivered a verdict.   Ominously, First Minister Alex Salmond in his concession speech qualified that rejection with the comment "for now "!  The Scots narrowly rejected breaking away from union with Britain 55/45, eerily consistent with the Australian referendum of 1999 which rejected becoming a Republic.

Now that the rosy glow of becoming a new country has faded,  it would be a good time to have a long, hard look at some of the issues that were left hanging in the air before the vote.   One of these was retaining the British pound as the currency of Scotland.

One has only to look to the Euro zone to see the diabolical mess that can ensure when vastly different sized economies are tied to a common currency unit.  Germany dominates the Euro zone and weak economies such as Greece have been forced into draconian austerity which has generated discontent - and serious unemployment.  Devaluing is not an option to boost tourism and help increase exports and smaller economies are caught in a vicious cycle in such circumstances.  A currency union between Britain and Scotland would pose similar risks.

No doubt border procedures between the two countries would be relaxed and cordial, but the right of passage would not be entirely free.   There is a similar procedure here between Australia and New Zealand, but both countries regularly turn back visitors with unsavoury criminal records. Both countries impose their own regulations on what passes duty free - and what items are a prohibited import.  It would be inevitable that regulation differences would occur.

Perhaps the biggest change of status would be evident when world affairs are discussed. The United States is the world's mightiest military power and when the top table convenes the US, the United Kingdom and France sit on one side, and Russia and China sit on the other.  They are the nuclear nations that hold the power of "Veto " - and it is their decisions that hold sway on world events.   As a small, independent country, Scotland would have similar status to New Zealand or Luxembourg.

Which brings up the subject of defence.  The increasing complexity of weapons systems is adding to the cost and a country with a population of five million would struggle to field a competitive air force and navy.   In combination with the United Kingdom that can be achieved.  Going it alone risks a lesser standard, which can be fatal in even a limited conflict.

Independence would certainly cause a thinking adjustment, taking the new nation from part of one of the great powers with influence on world affairs to a virtual backwater that would need to negotiate re-entry into most of the assemblies presently automatic because of it's UK association.   In some cases,  entry may be denied.

There is every chance that an independent Scotland would be successful, happy little country with a favourable balance of trade and a vibrant economy.  To a great extent, this depends on the forecasts for North Sea oil to be realistic.  There is no reason why Scotland should not be as successful as New Zealand, which with a population of 4.7 million is of similar size.   New Zealand is a completely independent Commonwealth country with a stable economy - and a relaxed mode of living. It is also an "undefended country."  It's air force consists of freighters and it has no combat aircraft.  When it's naval Frigates reach the end of their life they will not be replaced, and the army has been reduced to a capability of serving on United Nations peacekeeping duties only.   This does not sit well with many New Zealanders, but it is a necessity for an economy of that size.

Perhaps Scotland has the benefit of both worlds with that "no "vote.   It remains within the United Kingdom umbrella but has been promised devolution greater than the statehoods that exist in Australia, and in accepting that it needs to be very careful to use wisdom in making changes.   It would be so easy to tinker with things and end up with incompatibility with the rest of Britain.  When the heart rules the head - as so often happens when nationalism becomes an issue - the wisest course is often not the one chosen.

Scotland has achieved the next best thing to total independence !

Quashing Criminal Convictions !

What is the status of a criminal conviction when the law under which it was prosecuted has been repealed ?     That is a querie that would have most of the legal minds in this country struggling for answers.

Unfortunately the stain of convictions for homosexual acts between consenting adults remain on the records and years later are barriers to jobs and travel.  Such a conviction comes back to haunt those applying for a visa to visit many countries and they certainly do not help when a job resume is subjected to verification research - and an old conviction emerges.

Thirty years ago homosexuality was still a crime in most Australian states and it was decriminalized in Victoria in 1981 and New South Wales in 1984.   Now a private members bill is before the New South Wales parliament to have these records expunged.  It raises the question of what should happen  automatically to convictions that are no longer a crime because of a law change ?

Perhaps the disgrace inflicted on a British man credited with both a major coup that helped win the second world war and the theory that led to the development of the computer illustrates this point.  Alan Turing was a genius in the field of mathematics - and he was also gay.   He was recruited by the famous British code breakers of Bletchley Park and tasked with breaking Germany's "Enigma "code, so complex that even after the war many German generals refused to believe that it had been compromised.

Turing quickly ascertained that the human mind could not make the calculations needed to crack the code and began to search for a mechanical way of achieving multi calculations at high speed.  In essence, he developed a crude version of what later became the computer - and it solved the problem.

Unfortunately his sexual orientation became known to the police and he was arrested, put before a very unsympathetic magistrate - and offered a choice.   Gaol - or chemical castration.  He chose the latter, but the disgrace and being barred from further security work finally led to suicide.   Now the British government has cleared his name and belatedly showered him with the honours his valuable contributions deserved.

The complexity of the law begs this question to be answered.  If a crime is no longer a crime, how can ongoing punishment still be legal ?     The record of a past punishment is still in force if it's presence is still causing lifestyle limitations or blackening the reputation of the person in question. Many times the average person will be faced with the question  "Do you have any convictions ? " when making an application or swearing to provide a truthful answer to a statutory authority.  If the law has changed, surely the status of such a conviction changes with it ?

It will be interesting to see how this bill is applied if it passes into law, and that will depend on the wording and the intent.  It may simply apply to previous convictions for homosexuality, but many would welcome a wider interpretation to allow a person convicted of any statute that has since been repealed to apply to have that conviction struck off the record.

Anything less seems to be justice denied !

Free to Air Sport !

When PAY-TV first came to Australia there was concern that the cashed up network would scoop up the television rights to all the sporting codes - and "free to air "watching of the footy or the races would become a thing of the past.  The Federal government stepped in and insulated sport with a complicated arrangement known as the "anti siphoning "list and this has worked well for many years.   Now it is under threat as Foxtel flexes it's muscles and seeks more PAY-TV content.

Foxtel - jointly owned by Telstra and Newscorp - does have a legitimate gripe about the way this anti-siphoning law works.   The free to air television networks are protected and have exclusive access to many sports, but that exclusivity does not demand that it be actually put to air. In many cases they are simply stockpiled in the station library - and never again see the light of day.

It is a curious mix at present, resulting in a split showing arrangement between free to air and PAY-TV for AFL, NFL and Soccer, and this looks set to continue.  Viewers will still have access to the weekly competition of home and away games, but the eyes of PAY-TV are looking at the big world events - tennis, golf, Commonwealth Games, the Olympics - and more.   It is possible that all these may disappear from free to air showing and merge into the PAY-TV world.

Viewers would probably still see the Olympic opening and closing ceremonies on free to air, but not the individual events, and the cameras covering races such as the Americas cup would be exclusively delivering this fare to the subscription network.  We would certainly still have free to air access to what are termed iconic Australian events - such as the Melbourne cup and both the AFL and NFL grand finals, but the "money filter " would come into play on lesser events.   Such is the way television works in many overseas countries.

Negotiations are under way to create a "new deal "and it is hoped that adequate protection will be maintained for those who choose not to subscribe to PAY-TV.   In particular, we need to ensure that any new sport struggling to gain a foothold is not strangled at birth by rules that preclude it from getting air time.   Australian baseball comes to mind.   This is a growing sport, but if it is restricted to PAY-TV it is unlikely to attract a mass audience, possible with free to air coverage.

Perhaps we should remember the Australian experience with Soccer.   Half a century ago this was an almost forgotten sport in this country.  It was played by a few university clubs, but there was no national coverage and the sporting highlight in the south was AFL and NFL in New South Wales and Queensland.  What interest in Soccer existed was directed at the European and world competition.

When the government installed SBS to run alongside the ABC with national coverage, SBS quickly became the home of Soccer.   The ABC and free to air TV certainly include Soccer in their sporting coverage, but not to the almost fanatical extent that it is shown on SBS - and as a consequence this sport is now starting to challenge both the oval ball games in it's national following.    It would be a shame if the new TV coverage arrangement took Soccer away from SBS and relegated it to PAY-TV.

It is essential that the principle of "show it - or lose it "applies to whatever form of TV rights emerges from the present negotiations.   If free to air has the right to cover a sport, but shows just the odd glimpse occasionally, then PAY-TV should have the right to gain access without any form of compensation - and exactly the same rights should exist when the reverse applies.

Wherever a monopoly exists - discrimination follows.  Monopolies are a license to rig the system to exclude others from gain and the objectives of television are to provide the widest  coverage to the national viewing audience.   The whole point of PAY-TV is to accurately pick what their subscribers want to see and present it in a longer and better form than is available on free to air.  Nothing on PAY-TV should be totally excluded from even a reasonable coverage on free to air.

The crux of making that work would be the appointment of an impartial tribunal to decide matters on their merit on a case by case basis.     We live in an ever changing world and gaining viewers in either forms of television should be a matter decided by excellence - not by arbitrarily dividing the market for monetary gain !

Awaiting the reality !

This week it seemed that the wildest dreams of Sydney's long suffering western commuters were about to come true.  Premier Mike Baird announced that a $3.7 billion contract had been let for the first stage of the Sydney Rapid Transport Metro - between Chatswood and Rouse Hill.

This Utopian project calls for driverless trains to run every five minutes at peak and at mere ten minute intervals in off-peak and weekends.  There will be no need for a timetable - and commuters will simply "hop on and ride ".  This plan expects that on time running will achieve 98% efficiency. The starting time for this first section - is 2019.

Unfortunately, past grand plans for rail improvements have delivered far less than the bonanza promised, and this is just the first step in in an $8.3 billion attempt to link Sydney's ever expanding west with the city CBD.  A later stage will involve a second harbour tunnel crossing to bring this rail line into the CBD and then an extension to the west to link it to Bankstown.

Critics point out the incompatibility between this metro and the rest of the Sydney rail network.  The SRT route will accommodate single deck carriages and the rest of our rail system is double decked.  There is no prospect of ever combining the two because the tunnelling involved will only cater for single deck trains.

The planners dismiss this because they contend that the Metro is a fast way of moving people between two points while the existing rail system connects multiple areas and many individual lines and could never be adapted to driverless trains.   The Metro brings rail to areas that previously relied on the bus network and is an entirely new concept for the mass movement of people.

The lack of a driver or guard will raise safety questions in the minds of some people, but we are in an age of automation - and even driverless cars now seem likely to become reality.  One of the factors of this SRT is the fact that it is a single divided system and does not involve the integration of passenger and freight services, as is normal on most rail systems.   Some express the notion of a Metro as a series of "shuttle cars " which automatically stop at each station - load or disburse passengers - in a similar manner to an elevator in a high rise building.    We accept automated elevators without question.

Obviously this SRT will be under video surveillance to ensure passenger safety and be regularly patrolled by Transit  Police.   Personal safety for those travelling late at night will be no different from the existing system - but a faster response should be possible if the trains video system is linked to police stations along the route travelled.

Over decades many rail plans have been announced and then abandoned because of lack of money.  In this instance, a contract has been let - and work has begun.  No doubt there will be unexpected contingencies that arise with a project of this magnitude and both costs and the time frame may prove to be elastic - but there is a very good chance that when 2019 rolls around we may actually have a working rail line connecting Chatswood and Rouse Hill - and a Sydney Metro will be a reality.

The residents of Sydney's west can only hope !

The Tenant from Hell !

A revelation that tenants trashing public housing are costing more than ten million dollars a year in repairs has resulted in a demand that the tenancy laws be tightened to make it easier to "throw the bum's out "!

As things stand, complaints against public housing tenants are dealt with by the NSW Civil and Administrative Tribunal. It has a poor record of ordering evictions and recently the fifty-one cases appearing before it resulted in just fifteen orders to vacate.   Getting a hearing before the Tribunal is also a long and tedious process.

This is a twofold problem.  Some tenants facing eviction wilfully trash the premises, kicking holes in walls and making the place unliveable.   They simply melt into the wide diaspora with a changed name and completely avoid responsibility for the damage they have caused.  Then there is the anguish they have caused their neighbours during their tenancy.  In many instances they hold wild parties and have hoon friends with noisy cars - who like to play music loudly, and drug dealing can do a lot to damage the reputation of a neighbourhood.

Neighbours who complain to the Tribunal face an unpleasant quandary.  They are asked to appear at the hearing and voice their evidence to support an eviction, and have to go home to that same angry person next door in revenge mode.   In many cases, there is a very reasonable fear of a physical confrontation - resulting in injury.

Public housing was never intended as a home for life.  Rental is geared to just twenty-five percent of a tenant's income, hence a person on the dole pays very little.  There is the expectation that a tenant will move to accommodation appropriate to their circumstances as this changes and when their earnings improve they will either buy a home or move to a more affluent private rental.

It is evident that the Tribunal faces anguish in deciding to order eviction.  In some cases the tenants are a perfectly respectable elderly couple who have had adult children move in with them - and bring a regime of wild parties, heavy drinking and very noisy friends.  It is essential that the Tribunal have the power to order the eviction of individuals rather than merely terminating the entire tenancy.  In such a case, the Sheriff should have the responsibility of seeing that the order is carried out.

The doctrine of making decisions for the common good needs to apply. Public housing has a 58,000 waiting list and this property is a public asset.  The vast majority of public housing tenants pay their rent on time,  take good care of the property, maintain the garden and have pride in their neighbourhood.  It is the few  "bad eggs "that spoil the omelet !

The main need is for speedy decision making and a fast hearing before the Tribunal.  The present long and tedious process usually results in time to extend the neglect and damage - and it is unwise to expect neighbours to put themselves at risk by openly giving evidence.   The public housing administration needs it's own investigation staff to collect video evidence and take responsibility for weeding out bad tenants.  The very fact that such a team exists would most likely lead to an improvement in many cases.

The present slothful regime that seems to drag on forever brings no fear to wrong doers.  The need for a change is paramount !

The "Social Media " Threat !

The age of the computer - and it's companion - the Internet was supposed to usher in a new era of communication and enhance the benefits of knowledge.   The development of the "search engine " opened a new world with the promise that enquiring juvenile minds would have the boredom of school days banished.

What has emerged is a spate of cyber bullying  that involves Principals and teaching staff in the loss of valuable teaching time as they try and mitigate the damage.   The distress is causing some students to abandon school - and there have been cases of child suicide.  This is a situation fast spinning out of control.

The emerging statistics reveal a growing problem - and the majority of victims are girls.  Last year the number of incidents in Australia that resulted in an official complaint reached 463,000 - and these were in the 8-17 age group.   Breaking down those numbers even further, 365,000 involved children aged between 10 and 15.

That is not a pretty picture.  It seems that spite and character assassination are rife against girls between 10 and 15 and many are subjected to what can only be called a vendetta by their classmates.These cyber attacks are aimed at their appearance, life style, choice of clothes - and in many cases question their  morality and sexual behaviour.    It comes at a critical time, when many are experiencing the stress and change of puberty.

The answer suggested by well meaning pundits is to simply shut down the computer and ignore this bullying, but that is not so simple.  Cyber bullying involves both direct emails containing threats - and damaging content spread across the vast spectrum of social media - for all to see and comment on.  For most, they are impossible to ignore.

Many teachers are finding that they are becoming virtual "Agony Aunts " trying to steer vulnerable children out of this cyber morass.  It is distressing and time consuming, and brings them into conflict with the vast array of ethnicity, differences of language and religion - and protocols that apply in the schools of Australia today.

The Federal government is considering appointing a new "Children's E-Safety Commissioner " to act as a cyber bullying ombudsman and this may be a way of trying to influence parents in applying more supervision to their children's use of the Internet, but far too many children disregard parental control - and in many homes parents are completely indifferent to this bullying problem.

It is possible that an E-Safety Commissioner might try and impose laws to force social media to cull the more offensive postings, but that would run into a battle with the "Freedom of speech "people - and raise the spectre of Internet censorship.  It is highly unlikely that any bill to that effect would gain  partisan political approval.

Bullying has always been a fact of school life.   The only difference today is the phenomenon of social media and the wider distribution of it's insults in the public arena.  Schools dread Mondays - and many teachers scan the weekend posts to be forewarned of the problems they will face in the classrooms.  For many, giving advice to alleviate distress has become synonymous with teaching the curriculum - as social harmonising becomes an essential part of their job.

This is an unwinnable war.   We can only chip away to reduce the worst excesses and try to get parents to exercise some control over their children's worst rants - and get the children to understand the damage they are causing.

WORLD WAR 111

Most people envisage war by the images projected from the twentieth century.  The  "Great War "of 1914-18 came as the world was changing from the era of horse transport to that of the internal combustion engine.  It was a "Soldiers war "- fought on the battlefields of France and Belgium and the machine gun made frontal charges suicidal.   Millions of men in uniform died - and it was called "the war to end all war "!

The Treaty of Versailles made another war inevitable, and twenty years later the world was fighting a very different war.  This was a mechanised war and far fewer were to die on battlefields, but the killing fields now moved to the cities and civilian casualties mounted as aerial bombardment carried warfare onto the home front.  At that wars end, a combination of the development of nuclear weapons and delivery by ICBM's gave promise of a future in which all civilization might be annihilated.

Strangely, the sheer threat of an all consuming holocaust kept the remainder of that century relatively peaceful.  There were minor wars, but the array of rockets aimed at east and west kept fingers off the triggers, but a new form of warfare was quietly building - and with it came the ultimate horror - the threat of a "Holy War ".

Not since the Middle Ages have the world's armies fought religious battles,  but out of Wahabist Saudi Arabia a man named Osama bin Laden  began to preach Jihad.  His message found resonance amongst young Sunni Muslims and so began attacks against what they called "the decadent regimes of the west ".    This culminated into an attack on the World Trade centre in New York and the emergence of more extreme Islam - calling for world domination and the establishment of a Caliphate ruled by Sharia law.

The genie is now out of the bottle.  The Sunni Jihadists will not tolerate any other form of religion, including the Shia and a form of extremism is emerging that is a doctrine of "total war ".   This interpretation of the Koran condones such savagery as crucifixion, beheadings and the execution of any who decline to convert to the Sunni concept of life.  It imposes the demand that women be veiled, uneducated and totally subservient.   It is a step back - to a distant age.   The promise of "Paradise "for holy warriors killed in battle has appeal to the unemployed and uneducated masses of the Middle East and central Africa.   Jihad is a growing force, fast adding adherents in the more affluent societies of the west.

Just as modes of warfare constantly changed during the twentieth century, it seems that this twenty-first century may be the age of war against the enemy within.  A growing sect within Sunni Islam has declared war on the Shia, Christians, Buddhists, Hindus, and all other world faiths.  There is a promise of war by terrorism.  The planting of bombs to main and kill in the cities of the world until sufficient numbers can be gathered to openly control the levers of government - and install radical Islam as a Caliphate.

This seems to be the face of World War 111.   This may be a century in which the enlightened countries of the world fight an internal enemy which seems like a phantom force and the losers will certainly be moderate Islam.  Many of the followers of the Koran are perfectly happy to practice their religion in peace with the other religions of the world, but the moment the word " Islamic Terrorists "is labelled, the stigma applies to all who follow that creed.   When a section of the public is declared "the enemy " - battle lines are drawn.   It is inevitable that if guerrilla war is being waged on the streets of cities, similar opposing forces will emerge to pack back in kind.   Parts of the world may face the atrocities committed in Irish cities when two great schisms of Christianity went to war against one another.

The sad thing is that the tenets of all religions contain forgiveness, hope, charity and goodwill, and yet there are people who bend them to their own design and use them as a weapon in their seeking to gain power, and that seems to be a very human trait.

This world has never been without war.   Unfortunately the cardinal subject of disagreement has emerged from centuries of relative peace and we face the prospect of becoming  World War 111 combatants in a religious war that exceeds all boundaries.   Even the threat of nuclear Armageddon was less of a danger to the world !

Perhaps we are already fighting the first stages of a war that might last a hundred years - or become a war that never ends !

Superannuation Shortfall !

Most wage and salary earners worry that when retirement day rolls around their Superannuation pot will have enough money to tide them over for the remaining years of their lives.  Exactly how much money they will receive will be an unknown factor - until the payout happens.

A lot of factors come together in determining the depth of the Superannuation pool.   The administrators need to make sound investment choices. The government needs to keep inflation under control.  The Australian economy needs to remain  healthy - and we need to avoid another  world economic meltdown like the events of 2008.

Unfortunately, a cost rise seems inevitable to one of the Superannuation components.  Most Superannuation policies contain a life insurance guarantee of at least $ 200,000 to compensate for the early death of a contributor, when the contribution balance is still minuscule, and the premium rate is governed by that persons occupation.   Obviously, the "risk factor " is important in setting a premium for life insurance cover.

It is alarming to learn that the Life Insurance industry suffered a $ 343 million loss last year and this followed a $ 122 million loss in the previous year.  Premiums are set to rise and it looks like blue collar workers may face a 30% increase and white collar workers something above 15%.  There is talk of an average 27% rise across all sectors to bring life insurance back to good health.

Obviously, any increase in operating costs has a detrimental effect on final payouts and this is bad news for those with intermittent access to permanent employment.  The entire structure of Superannuation is based on continuous contributions over a persons entire working life and any gaps lower the payout.  Women are particularly vulnerable if they disengage from paid work for family reasons during their child bearing years.

In this instance, the insurance actuaries who calculate premiums  seem to have got it wrong. Perhaps they miscalculated the trend of ever increasing life expectancy and used this to assume contributions continuing longer  to offset death rates, only to have many people retiring early - and upset this balance.  Whatever the cause, it is inevitable that the insurance component of Superannuation is about to take a hike.

More importantly,  the blow will fall more heavily on those with a higher risk exposure.  A man whose occupation involves digging trenches will certainly attract a much higher insurance component than an IT worker in a city office,  and the route dispatcher of a trucking company will fare a lot better than one of it's long distance drivers.

That is something to be taken into account when making plans for the future.   What you do for a living during your working life will certainly have an effect on how you will spend your retirement years !

Dodging " Judgement " !

The Australian Primary Principals Association is demanding that the scores from the National Assessment Programme - Literacy and Numeracy - which we know as "NAPLAN "- be removed from the "My School "website.   It is claimed that giving the public access to this information is actually harming some students.

NAPLAN requires a comprehensive evaluation of the literacy and numeracy skills achieved in years 3, 5, 7 and 9 and runs a comparison of school results across the entire spectrum of the Australian education system.  The sticking point for teachers is that it allows parents to judge the standard of education being delivered by each individual school - which is something they would prefer to be kept secret.

It seems that we have two competing factions pulling in opposite directions.  From the government point of view, NAPLAN threw the spotlight of transparency and accountability onto the education system.  It identified schools that were falling below standard and opened the door for rectification. In theory, more money would be spent to advance the training of under performing teachers and the school would get help to elevate teaching standards.

That was anathema to the powerful teachers unions.   They are deeply enmeshed in the principle of seniority being measured only in years served and uniform pay grades.   Incentives for brilliance are seen as elevating "stars "above the common herd - and this "herd mentality " is paramount.  It is probably one of the reasons that Australia's education system compares badly with that of some of our trading neighbours.

Parents love NAPLAN.   It puts a tool in their hands and allows them to place their children where the best results are being achieved, and school gradings have a lot to do with property values. The teaching unions fear that this may be the thin end of the wedge when it comes to rewarding gifted teachers and moving away from the drudgery of  "Public Service " pay uniformity.   NAPLAN also draws the comparison of the private and public school systems into the public gaze.

One of the drawbacks often mentioned is the tendency for teachers to concentrate their students on the likely content of coming NAPLAN tests rather than the broader issues of a balanced education curriculum.   There is also a tendency to rig the result by arranging for weaker performers to go AWOL on test day.  Some people claim that publishing what they term a "Leagues table "of school results actually lowers standards as any competent teachers at a weak school seek to move on to a school higher on the gradings.

Improvements will not be gained by dumping NAPLAN scores in the rubbish bin.   They are a legitimate comparison - warts and all - and improvement will depend on the government implementing the measures to upgrade the lower ranking schools - and that will cost money and probably involve some heavy fighting with the teaching unions.   We certainly need schooling in Australia to be on the basis of a national curriculum, not on the fragmented mess that it is under the state and Territory individual regimes.    That will impose a certain loss of autonomy on state education, but few would seriously support still having eight individual education systems in place in modern Australia.

NAPLAN is the first step on a very long road.   We need the fortitude to see it through and the resolve to pay the price needed if Australian education is going to place us amongst the leaders in an ever more competitive world !

The " Shark " Enigma !

This week a swimmer was taken by a shark at a beach in Byron Bay and this became the headline news story in Australia.  It will certainly enliven the debate on whether we need shark nets to provide swimmer safety off our beaches and whether the setting of drum lines is a practical way of culling big sharks.

The very thought of being attacked in the water by an animal with razor sharp teeth sends a chill through most swimmers, and yet the risk is infinitesimal compared to the chances of death by many other causes - which we accept unconditionally.   The odds of dieing in a fatal car accident comes high on that list and there are more people who are murder victims than shark victims when it comes to death analysis.

The man who died at Byron Bay was simply having a morning swim just fifteen metres off the beach. His timing and choice of place were unfortunate because they converged with the random wanderings of a three metre White Pointer shark looking for breakfast.   The swimmer was wearing a black wet suit - and it is likely that the shark mistook him for a seal, one of that predator's main food items.

Shark attack seems to be entirely random.   We are warmed that early morning and early evening are times of great danger because they coincide with the shark meal habits and overcast days may have a bearing on this animal's ability to recognise the difference between a human and a seal.   It is also unwise to approach if sharks are engaged in a " feeding frenzy "on the carcass of a dead whale or other sea creature.   But in the end, it all seems to be a matter of luck.   If you bump into a very hungry shark - or one who is curious about the taste of humans - you become a statistic !

That raises the question of who has "right of way "in the sea. Clearly, humans are at the top of the pecking order in the food chain and we lord it over all the land animals on this planet.   A man with a gun can easily conquer a Bengal Tiger or a Lion, considered the pinnacle of the animal pecking order. That dominance is not so clear when it comes to encounters in the sea.

Scientists assure us that we disrupt the animal food cycle at our peril.    Should we manage to eliminate sharks from the food chain it could have a catastrophic effect on the world food supply because the sea is a critical source of food for much of humanity.  That seems to indicate that there must be limits on shark nets and drum lines, and that we must make personal decisions on the degree of risk we are prepared to take when we enter the sea.

That is very much a personal decision.  Many people consciously decide to take the safe option and only bathe where barriers prevent the entry of sharks while the board riding fraternity are usually back in the water and seeking the perfect wave within hours of a fatal shark attack - and the odds are very much in their favour.

There is a saving grace for those with a love of bathing in the sea.  It seems that there is safety in numbers.   There has never been a shark attack on the crowds bathing between the flags on a beach under the control of the Surf Lifesavers.

Bankrupt Councils !

New South Wales has 152 local councils and the ratio of residents to councillor ranges from less than 150 to 20,000 and cumulatively they employ a work force of about 45,000.  Unfortunately, two thirds of them have an annual deficit of over $ 400,00 and are ranked as "unsustainable ".   Each year this situation deteriorates.

The state government is on the horns of a dilemma.    Before the last election it promised there would be no forced council amalgamations and yet if this situation is allowed to continue unabated there is a real prospect of council bankruptcies.  Premier Mike Baird is offering the carrot in place of the stick and promising a ten million dollar grant to councils that willingly amalgamate with a neighbour to achieve economies of scale and bring costs under control. This largess will come from the electricity sell off.

Seventy years ago a city like Wollongong had over a dozen local councils - and now it has just one.   In those early days the purpose of councils was limited to providing somewhere for a rubbish tip, paying for "night soil "collection and looking after the local streets.  Over the years new services fell on council shoulders - from providing libraries to provision and maintenance of parks and sporting facilities - to maintaining a health care regime and even child care facilities.   Both the Federal and state governments added to council responsibilities - without adding to the council money pot !

The fatal blow came when council rates were limited  to increases below the rate of inflation each year to help maintain a reasonable cost of living.   Council finances fell further behind and most now have a works backlog that they can never hope to eliminate.  Their only source of income comes from property rates, and they are controlled and at the whim of the state Treasurer.

Here in Wollongong there is pressure for an amalgamation with our twin city of Shellharbour.  There is a degree of logic in that suggestion, but it is bitterly opposed by the majority of residents in both areas - mainly on the grounds of loss of local control.  Proponents cite a saving by eliminating the duplication of services, but that will impose a loss of jobs, with the usual finger pointing to determine which area will suffer the loss.   We already share much heavy equipment and it could probably achieve even more savings if both council works programmes were folded into a common entity while still leaving each council administration intact.

In the end, the sticking point is rate revenue.   By government edict, pensioners get a big cut on their council rates and neither state or Federal land pays into the rate pool - and all churches are exempt. The money available to councils for services come exclusively from  home owners and this level is dictated by the higher levels of government.  If rates are allowed to rise to a sustainable level, they will certainly impose financial pain - and earn retribution at the ballot box.

Pity the council that has huge suburbs rich in welfare housing.  Other levels of government collect the rent but do not pay council rates, and yet the council is required to provide exactly the level of municipal services as apply to rateable households.    The rich churches escape the rates net - and is there any real reason why a state or Federal property should be rates free ?

Amalgamations are certainly part of the answer, but it's time that local government went back into the melting pot and the entire cost structure got a new examination.   The rate collection net needs to widen and realism applied to paying for council services.   Unfortunately, those escaping the need to pay council rates are unlikely to see it that way !

G-20 Security.

Hosting the G-20 summit of world leaders is sought by most participating nations and this November the gathering will be in Brisbane.  The publicity it will attract will assist in promoting our tourist  attractions and will be well worth the cost.

Security for the event is the responsibility of the host country and it has been decided that Australia's ageing fleet of bomb proof Holden limousines is no longer up to the job.  Heads of state and finance ministers will ride in imported BMW's and their security specifications are impressive.  Body armour and thickened glass can stop AK-47 fire.  Under vehicle armour makes them bomb proof and they have an internal oxygen supply to thwart a gas or chemical weapon attack.   Coupled with a massive V-12 engine and puncture proof tyres,  they are considered unstoppable.

Of course, they are also expensive.   We are importing sixteen cars for this G-20 and the price tag for outright purchase is at least one million dollars each, but we will outlay a paltry $ 1.8 million for the lot because they will be rentals.   There is the usual criticism that we should be supporting our own car industry, but considering that it has signalled it's departure from our shores it is probably wise to move with the times.

These armoured BMW's will serve the lesser heads of state because both Barak Obama and Vladimir Putin - if he comes - will bring their own specially constructed security vehicles.   Days before the event we can expect a visit from giant transport aircraft delivering not only the car to be used, but also a replica backup vehicle.  There will also be a small army of security experts from both countries who will thoroughly check the venues and the accommodation - and set up a communications hub so that their leaders can be in instant contact with their home base as they manage world affairs.

A gathering of world leaders will certainly be a tempting target for terrorism because it will concentrate media headlines.  Unfortunately, it will also attract local demonstrators with protest issues and both local police and the nation's security services will be on knife edge to maintain crowd control and prevent "incidents "!   Australia's reputation will be on the line - and the world will be watching.

It is worth remembering that a hundred years ago the "Great War "started when a single terrorist armed with a pistol assassinated the heir to the Austrian throne.  In the decades that followed many kings and presidents have fallen victim to those that wish them harm and the forces of dissent have grown to power bases that command followers numbered in their millions - and equipped with weapons of mass destruction.

Australia's leaders will heave a sigh of relief when this summit is over, and our visitors return to their home countries without incident !

Dangerous Loads !

A B-Double loaded with Ammonia Nitrate was travelling the Mitchell highway from Queensland to South Australia when it rolled and caught fire.   Police, ambulances and two fire trucks raced to the scene and the driver was pulled from the wreck.   Immediately rescue crews learned of the dangerous cargo they retreated - but an immense explosion caused injuries, totally destroyed the low level concrete bridge under the truck, wrecked another adjacent railway bridge and reduced the remains of the truck and the rescue vehicles and was heard twenty miles away.

Ammonia Nitrate is an important agricultural fertilizer, but it is also used in the manufacturing of explosives - and is a favourite tool of terrorist bomb makers.  Usually, all that is necessary is the inclusion of diesel fuel to create an industrial grade explosive - and in this road crash the diesel fuel used by the B-Double and the Ammonia Nitrate could easily combine as both spilled onto the roadway.

Pictures on television give the extent of the blast.  It is similar to the weapons of war being used in Ukraine and the Middle East and the Mitchell highway will be closed for weeks, sending traffic on a 750 kilometre detour.   It also raises questions about the safety of cargos routinely transported across Australia on our highway system - and the threat they pose in this ever dangerous world in which we live.

How many other trucks loaded with similar materials are sharing the roads with packed tourist coaches and making their way through towns and cities as they cross state lines ?   We were lucky that this crash happened on a remote stretch of road which delivered no collateral damage - but a roll over or a collision with another vehicle can happen anywhere and should that occur in a densely packed suburb the death toll could be horrific.

We are constantly getting threats from terrorist organizations who promise to bring death and mayhem to our shores. Hijacking a B-Double with a single driver in charge would be a simple plan given that the journey involves nightly stop-overs and fuel and meal breaks.   We have laws in place that require some dangerous loads to travel with an escort.  Perhaps this massive explosion is a wakeup call.    When the Australian army moves munitions by road precautions are taken and when radioactive waste is moved from Lucas Heights to be shipped overseas roads are closed and police man all intersections.   Perhaps it is time to review the entire safety structure of the road transport system.

The Melbourne Cup of the Outback !

The Melbourne Cup is the race "that stops the nation ", but Australia has another iconic racing event that is widely reported overseas.   That is the Birdsville Racing Carnival and it was held last Saturday in Birdsville, right in the heart of the Australian outback and a town with a population of about a hundred people.  On raceday, that swells to well over 6000.

It is the sheer audacity of the event that draws world attention.  Birdsville is little more than a petrol station, a general store - and the famous Birdsville pub, but on that one race day of the year the place is packed with cars, trucks, motorbikes - quite a few camels - and lots and lots of fancy aircraft.  It is the place to be "seen " and it gets coverage in fashion magazines.

The race is held on a sand track and the horses kick up a huge dust cloud - and there is serious prize money to be won.  The money pot stands at $ 170,000 and both the bookies and the TAB are covering events.  No wonder it is termed the " Melbourne Cup of the Outback ".

There are predictions that this event will get even bigger.  In recent years it seems to have captured the imagination of adventurous people and we are seeing a visit to the Birdsville Cup becoming an adventure that requires a full year planning.  One group took a week to reach Birdsville in a convoy of cars and motorbikes, extending the adventure to discover towns along the way and camp in the wild using swags.

Just as a visit to Uluru has become a "must "for tourists visiting Australia, world events are causing many Australians to reevaluate the risks of an overseas holiday.  Islamic terrorism seems to be an increasing threat and this throws a shadow on places like Bali.   More people are looking inward and discovering the attractions that this vast Australian continent can deliver.

The danger to events like Birdsville is the intrusion of the authorities to impose rules and laws that might stifle the spontaneity that makes it such a joyful event.   Licensing laws seem to be disregarded during this weekend event and parking rules do not apply in a town where the desert stretches to the horizon.   It handles crowds of six thousand people without incident, but if the numbers swelled to sixty thousand it could become a victim of it's own success.

Perhaps a good reason to include Birdsville on your "bucket list "-  while it remains the "Melbourne Cup of the Outback "!

The " Asian Tiger " is coming !

Evolution is a work in progress and not all of the outcomes are beneficial.  We have seen that in the deep jungles of Africa where closer contact between the human and animal worlds unleashed both AIDS and Ebola.  Now a new menace is knocking on the door of Australia !

It's official terminology is  "Aedes Albopictus ", but the people it torments call it the "Asian Tiger "
.  It is a new breed of mosquito distinguished by broad stripes - and a voracious appetite for human blood.  Most mosquitoes seek their meals in the evening and early morning, but this pest is active on a constant basis and is often referred to as "the BBQ wrecker "- because remaining outdoors becomes impossible.

It originated in Asia and quickly spread through both Europe and North America, and now it is within sight of Australia from the other side of Torres Strait.  It's arrival here is inevitable and it is a known carrier of at least twenty tropical diseases and they include Dengue fever and Encephalitis.   It is also a carrier of Chikungunya, a virus that is not present in Australia and which manifests itself with joint pain, vomiting, a rash, fatigue and violent headaches - and for which there is no vaccine or effective treatment.

This "Asian Tiger "is a hardy beast that it difficult to eradicate. In particular, it's eggs seem to survive weather conditions that destroy most mosquito larvae and it is a relentless attacker of any exposed part of the human body.  It's one weakness is the need for a water source in which to lay eggs and in future we will need to strictly control any part of our property where pools of rainwater can collect.

An old car tyre hanging on a rope from a tree makes a good swing for the kids - but it can also collect water - and breed mosquitoes.   A tarpaulin or plastic in the vegetable garden to control weeds can have hollows that retain a pool of water.  The list is endless and unless great care is taken the Australian summer outdoor life is at risk.

Fore warned is fore armed !    There is little doubt that this "Asian Tiger  will find it's way onto mainland Australia and the extent to which it becomes a menace and disturbs our laid back lifestyle will depend on how effective we are at stopping it gaining a foot hold, and that will depend on the average citizen blocking off it's water supply !

" Legitimate " firearms.

In the days before the Port Arthur massacre in 1996 gun ownership in Australia was a very casual affair.  It was not required to register long arms and many guns simply passed down from one generation to another.  It was decided to cull this proliferation of guns by a huge buy back and the imposition of strict rules.  Owners now needed permission from a landowner to shoot on a property to gain a gun license - and new storage requirements were imposed on those who gained such a license.

Since then, gun ownership rules have been relaxed and it is claimed that the theft of guns is arming the criminal fraternity.   Last year 578 guns were stolen from family properties, and 80% of these were from rural areas - and they were mostly rifles and shotguns.

Gun Control Australia  ( GCA ) is calling for a draconian tightening of storage requirements and these will impose crippling costs on those with a legitimate need for firearms.  The present laws require guns to be stored in "gun safes ", but few would meet the criteria that the GCA is now demanding.

This new gun safe edict would require each safe to be connected with an automatic alarm to alert a remote security company if tampering occurred, and the penalties for any breach of the rules are severe.    They allow for the immediate seizure of guns and ammunition and the imposition of a seven year disqualification for future gun  ownership.   There is even an increased specification for the construction of gun safes - and the demand that they be made of hardened steel panels.

Security alarms involve a big monthly fee and the cost of the type of gun safe being proposed would run into many hundreds of dollars.  It seems that gun theft is usually a result of of thieves carrying out a burglary finding an unsecured  weapon - and many would question the assertion that it is these guns that are arming criminals.   The constant Sydney gun crime involves hand guns - and gun theft from city homes and rural properties is exclusively long arms.

The question hanging in the air - is what sort of compliance inspection will accompany these new law requirements ?    Will every registered gun owner in this state get a visit from the police demanding to inspect the gun safe and test the security alarm ?   In particular, farmers who have a need for firearms will not welcome a huge financial impost to secure what they regard as a "tool of trade ". The question the legislators need to ask is :  " Will this new law have any effect in reducing gun crime ?  " - and the answer will clearly be  "No "!

Our porous borders are not stopping either drugs or hand guns entering Australia and it seems that we have developed backyard engineering by criminal elements who are even producing credible machine guns.   This seems to be an attempt by the legislators to "look good "by imposing a crack down on gun crime, but without any real impact and at the cost of making life more difficult for the farming community.

It is not rifles and shotguns that the criminals are seeking and they are not having problems getting hand guns.    That old adage  "If it "aint broke - don't fix it  " seems to apply !

A lost opportunity !

Our politicians - both Federal and state - are not a brave lot.   The moment " Medical Marijuana " gets a mention they run for cover.  In particular, they try and avoid a " conscience vote "  because they fear being accused of being " soft on drugs " and possibly alienating the more conservative voters in their electorate.

It has been proved that the properties of Marijuana are beneficial in alleviating the unpleasant aspects of several medical conditions, but in particular it prevents the severe vomiting that accompanies the use of chemotherapy for cancer treatment.   The two most common side effects are the loss of all hair - and constantly suffering the emptying of stomach contents.   Thousands have found that the application of a little Cannabis oil totally relieves this condition.

It would be reasonable to task the Commonwealth Serum laboratories with producing Cannabis oil and making it available through hospital Chemotherapy facilities.   It is completely unreasonable that a treatment that works to relieve vomiting is simply not available because it conflicts with a law - which is being widely disregarded.  Chemotherapy patients are being discreetly told to go and find a drug pusher - and break the law to get relief.

Avoiding the need to legalize Cannabis oil will probably have an unintended purpose - eventually blowing out the cost of the PBS.     The opportunity offering will not be missed by the major drug companies and they will seek to identify the actual properties present in Cannabis oil and duplicate them in a way that bypasses the legal definition of Marijuana - and then that will become a new patent.   For the next twenty years the PBS will pay a high premium demanded by the patent holder - for a product that is presently available for just the cost of production in a government owned facility.

It seems that self preservation ranks higher in the minds of politicians than grasping the nettle when medical relief and criticism come into conflict.   Bravery does not seem to be a political attribute !

The " Fear Factor " !

The Islamist terrorists of the "Islamic State "are projecting a "fear factor "well in excess of their numbers.  This has worked for invading armies down through the ages and the common tactic is to undermine the spirit of the defenders by creating the image of an unstoppable force that will impose the most bloodthirsty end to the lives of those who stand in their way.

It worked well in Iraq.   The Iraqi army was vastly superior in numbers and equipped with the latest weapons of war.   The Americans had spent time and treasure training it and despite a religious inbalance that worked against the general population numbers of that country it certainly had the capacity to perform a combat mission.

Faced with a fanatical foe, it's officers deserted and fled - and the ranks quickly broke and followed them, leaving behind a vast trove of weapons that not only equipped a terrorist army small in numbers, but under equipped with little more than AK-47 assault rifles,  rocket propelled grenades - and a few truck mounted heavy machine guns.   This spectacular victory certainly encouraged fanatical young men from many foreign countries to rush and join their ranks.

Nothing breeds success - like success !   The image of IS is that of an all conquering force that is sweeping away all before it. Now their tacticians are working to secure victory on the home front - and to them that is the vast masses of civilians that live in America, Australia and the countries of Europe.   We are presented with the image of captured journalists being forced to read prepared statements - and then having their throats slit and being decapitated with knives.  It is totally barbaric and it blends well with the images of captured Iraqi soldiers being led away to mass death in the desert.

They are careful to project a similar horror to the women of the western world.  When they take a town or village their first act is to execute "Infidels " who refuse to convert to Islam, but a far different fate awaits their women and children.   The prettier young women are shared up amongst their followers and forced to become second or third wives, and the rest are sold off for a few dollars in a slave market - to become sex slaves for those who take their fancy.   The inference is that when they impose an Islamic Caliphate on the entire world, that will also be the fate of the western women that they conquer.

Whipping up religious fervour by barbarity abroad is designed to intimidate followers of  Islam living in western countries.  We are seeing this in Australia, where the silence of our Islamic population has been taken as support for terrorism.  Firebrands have spread fear in the Mosques and few have been prepared to openly oppose fanaticism.   When a street march has been proposed to raise objections to some supposed insult to Islam, the main rank and file have been too scared not to at least put in an appearance to appease their tormentors.

Islamic leaders in Australia have tried to steer a middle course, but that is now changing - fast !  The days of  "double speak "- saying one thing to the media - and something entirely different in the mosque - are over.    Islam is finding it's voice - and courageous leaders are emerging to express the views of the vast majority of Australian Muslims who simply want to live peacefully in this country.

The tactic of barbarity to silence opposition is now starting to work in reverse  - and like the Boomerang - it is returning to sender.   We certainly do have Islamic fanatics in our community and most likely there will be acts of terror that will cost Australian lives, but Islam in Australia is weighing up the reasons they are here in Australia - and not living under despotic Islamic rule where fanatics set the tune - and impose the rules.

The problem with the "horror tactic "-  is that it quickly exposes all that is wrong with the intended achievement !

A Balancing Act !

The Mining tax is now history, but it's demise has led to a re-balancing of the take home pay in workers pockets.   The Superannuation guarantee that was to have increased from 9.5% to  12% from 2019 has been delayed and will not now be implemented until 2025.   As a result, the Superannuation pool will drop by $ 128 billion.

Like most new measures, there will be winners and losers.  With less money going into Superannuation, the vast majority will have more spending power - and we are living in harsher economic times.  This will give more flexibility to manage things like electricity and gas bills but it will make the dream of becoming an affluent self funded retiree more remote.

The main losers will be mid-life people staring retirement in the face.  Fortunately, they can opt to increase their personal Superannuation contributions  but it simply means that we will surely see a continuation of retired people who need a part pension because their Superannuation nest egg is insufficient to cover their retirement costs.   The whole purpose of compulsory Superannuation was to eventually do away with pensions as a drain on the national economy.

These statistics point the finger at another problem that is worrying the economic planners.  This roaring market in ever increasing home prices is shutting out first home buyers.  In August, home loans amounted to $ 3.9 billion in new mortgages- and first home buyers have shrunk to just 9.5%. The delay in the Superannuation rate will certainly put more money in the pockets of young buyers, but these booming house prices show no sign of slackening, and getting a foot on the home ownership ladder is fast receding for the average young buyer.

Home ownership and Superannuation are locked in a mutual embrace.   Owning a home is usually the biggest investment any individual makes and when retirement looms it is the key option in deciding what standard of living is possible.   In many cases, selling a city home and downgrading to either a cheaper home in a remote area - or  remaining in the city but embracing a smaller high rise apartment can free up the money needed for a comfortable retirement.   There is every chance that those locked out of home ownership will eventually become future pensioners.

The obvious answer is more housing density to get more people living in affordable housing - and yet this comes with the threat of a drop in living standards.  There is often a very fine line between reducing regulations to make more affordable housing - and having that freedom produce what amounts to a "  Favella ".

Surprisingly, we are still building homes in the same way as the days of the Pyramids or ancient Rome - putting one brick on top of another - and that is a very labour intensive way of doing things. In this modular age it would seem reasonable to to expect factory built housing to sharply reduce prices and produce that first step to home ownership.

Superannuation and housing seem to be planned in isolation.  One is very contingent on the other and it may be necessary to combine forces - and use the Superannuation pool as the way of financing home ownership - as a necessary step in financing those final years.

Anyone locked out of home ownership has little chance of a comfortable retirement- or avoiding looking to the government for help with a pension !

Brickbats - and Bouquets !

Yesterday was the first day of Spring - and it was also the first day that it was impossible to buy a train ticket at a Sydney railway station.  To travel by train you needed to swipe an Opal card at the entry terminal - and there were predictions of chaos.   This first major test of the Opal card passed with flying colours.

The previous Labor government spent millions and decades failing to get such a system up and running.  The complexities of applying it to rail, bus and ferries was just too great, given that it also had to encompass pensioner discounts and the range of weekly, monthly and annual fares on offer.  They tried to plan it across all sectors for a single implementation - which maximised the difficulties.

Transport Minister Gladys Berejiklian adopted a more cautious approach to overcome these problems.   It was first applied to the Sydney ferry system with it's much fewer passengers and this enabled the bugs to be rectified with minimum travel disruptions.   Then it was applied to the rail system, but on the basis of one rail line at a time.  The constant publicity kept it in the public eye and now that rail is covered by Opal card the system is being systematically applied to bus travel - and after that it will encompass light rail - completing the trifecta.

There are some grumbles !   Some passengers find that instead of the promised saving on fares, they are actually paying up to fifty dollars a month more for public transport.  The grading of fares is yet to come and the main impetus was to get the system up and running and that required a common fare in these early stages. Within a short time we will see the issueing of Opal cards that identify pensioners and the whole raft of fare structures that the computer can identify - and the entrancing prospect of cheap off peak travel to entice users to save money by avoiding peak times.

At the moment the main saving is speed.  Gone are the dreary queues waiting to buy paper tickets and the actual loading of passengers is much faster.  Strangely, Opal cards are not on sale at rail stations.  That was one of the predicted problems of yesterday, but it did not eventuate.   They are sold by selected outlets - usually newsagents - in nearby shopping centres and machines at stations allow the balance held in customer's accounts to be topped up.   It is evident that travellers have adapted to the need to have an Opal card in their wallets or purse.

Now that the system is up and running we can expect the fine tuning to be steadily improved.  The detractors who said it would never work in this city have been proved wrong, and yesterday a lot of people were holding their breathe - waiting to see how the day would turn out.